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发表于 2024-11-11 16:16
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【天气回顾】[Halloween Snow? A Trick by Weather!]
Although yesterday all of the weather models had pointed that there would be a relatively high chance of snow in Thunder Bay Area on this Halloween afternoon, the worst thing still happened.
Just like what I concerned yesterday, the actual position of the extratropical cyclone, which has caused heavy snowfall in Minnesota today, was slightly further south than models predicted. (We are at north edge of the cyclone in yesterday's model forecast.)
Most importantly, I consider that models are likely to overestimate precipitation in northwestern part of a extratropical cyclone due to the dry advection from north near the surface. Even if the upper-level water vapor has reached Thunder Bay today, it is not strong enough to support any types of precipitation falling to the ground because of evaporation near the surface. Therefore, we can only get a chilly overcast day.
I heard that normally at this time of the year snow cover is already appear in Thunder Bay. However, warmer and drier condition has been witnessed this year. Definitely climate change plays an important role on it.
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发表于 2024-9-18 18:45
