罗德里格斯岛以东强热带风暴第13号“伊沃娜”(23U/24S.Ivone) - 西南移动

理可的呆萌呆毛

编扰资讯

98S INVEST 250304 1800 5.1S 93.8E SHEM 15 1009

Meow

已形成热低并编号23U，有望2天内达到热带气旋强度。

Tropical Low 23U

Tropical Low 23U well northwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is expected to move southwest.

• Tropical Low 23U lies 800km northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and is expected to move to the southwest.
• No direct impacts are expected for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
• 23U is forecast to slowly strengthen, and has a Moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone strength from Friday evening.
• There is a chance it passes through the northwest corner of the Area of Responsibility late Thursday or during Friday.
  

一只布拉万

数值支持发展，前景不错

pocketbox

Tropical Low 23U
Tropical Low 23U well northwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is expected to move southwest.

• Tropical Low 23U lies 750km northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and is expected to move to the southwest.
• No direct impacts are expected for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
• 23U is currently weak, but is forecast to strengthen, and has a Moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone strength Friday evening and a high chance from Saturday.
• There is a chance it passes through the northwest corner of the Area of Responsibility late Thursday or during Friday.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 08:36 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 7  Mar 12:00 am

Fri 7  Mar 12:00 pm

Sat 8  Mar 12:00 am

Sat 8  Mar 12:00 pm

Sun 9  Mar 12:00 am

Sun 9  Mar 12:00 pm

Mon 10  Mar 12:00 am

Mon 10  Mar 12:00 pm

Tue 11  Mar 12:00 am

Tue 11  Mar 12:00 pm

Wed 12  Mar 12:00 am

Wed 12  Mar 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 23U

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

35 (Moderate)

55 (High)

65 (High)

70 (High)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

一只布拉万

结构不太好哦

pocketbox

Tropical Low 23U
Tropical Low 23U well west northwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is moving southwest.

• Tropical Low 23U lies 820km west northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and is moving to the southwest.
• No direct impacts are expected for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
• 23U is forecast to strengthen, and has a High chance of reaching tropical cyclone strength on Saturday.
• There is a slight chance it passes through the northwest corner of the Area of Responsibility during Friday.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:27 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 8  Mar 12:00 am

Sat 8  Mar 12:00 pm

Sun 9  Mar 12:00 am

Sun 9  Mar 12:00 pm

Mon 10  Mar 12:00 am

Mon 10  Mar 12:00 pm

Tue 11  Mar 12:00 am

Tue 11  Mar 12:00 pm

Wed 12  Mar 12:00 am

Wed 12  Mar 12:00 pm

Thu 13  Mar 12:00 am

Thu 13  Mar 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 23U

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

35 (Moderate)

55 (High)

65 (High)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/061800Z-
071800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S
87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 472 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LLCC. A 061539Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS THE BROAD NATURE OF
98S WITH WEAK OVERALL WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM SITTING UNDER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS, AND VERY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THIS IS OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). DESPITE THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
AND CONSISTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF 98S OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8S
56.8E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
ROTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, RELATIVELY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/070900Z-071800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.6S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 548 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLE BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.8S 56.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 53.6E, APPROXIMATELY 534 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C). GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

Leonardo

TPXS10 PGTW 071518

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98S (NW OF COCOS ISLANDS)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 10.95S

D. 87.34E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED
NEAR OR UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. BOTH MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   07/1211Z  10.77S  87.58E  SSMS
   07/1304Z  11.00S  87.42E  SSMS


   LINDGREN

Leonardo