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Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
This TC Potential Bulletin describes any current cyclone activity, along with details of possible cyclone development over the next five days in the Coral Sea and South Pacific area between Australia and 120W. It is normally issued during the TC season from 1 Nov to 30 Apr, but also outside this period if required for a potential or active cyclone.
Current status of cyclone activity
There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South Pacific areas.
Forecast to 12:00 18 Feb 2025 UTC (1am Wed, 19 Feb NZT)
A tropical low was analysed near 21.0S 172.6E (at 161800UTC) southwest of Fiji this morning, there is no sign of any organisation and it will fill tomorrow. Hence the potential for it to become a tropical cyclone is very low. There are no other significant lows of interest.
Outlook to 12:00 21 Feb 2025 UTC (1am Sat, 22 Feb NZT)
Most model outlooks pick the development of two lows between Fiji and Niue, also between Cook Islands to French Polynesia from the middle of the week onwards, although they vary considerably on the speed of development.
The environment looks somewhat favourable for tropical cyclone developments. The chance of a new tropical cyclone developing in a region between Fiji and Niue is VERY LOW on Wednesday, then LOW on Thursday, and moderate from Friday.
For a second potential low between Cooks and French Polynesia, the chance for it to become a tropical cyclone is VERY LOW on Wednesday, then LOW from Thursday.
Issued: 12:53pm Mon, 17 Feb
The next bulletin will be issued by 1pm Tue, 18 Feb
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