南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年7月－2025年6月）

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Tropical Low 12U
Possible tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria on the weekend.

• A tropical low, 12U, may develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria late this week.
• From Sunday the likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate.
• There is considerable uncertainty with the potential development of this tropical low, particularly with the possible development of tropical lows to the west and the east.
• If the system forms it is likely to track generally south or southwest through the Gulf of Carpentaria early next week.
• By mid-next week, the system will likely weaken as it interacts with land, and the chance of it being a tropical cyclone drops to Low.
  

Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:41 am UTC

Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low may develop north of WA later in the week.

• A tropical low (14U) may develop north or northwest of the Kimberley coast during Friday or over the weekend.
• If it develops, the low is expected to move west and remain north of the WA coast.
• There is a Low risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Saturday.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:50 am UTC

Tropical Low 15U
A tropical low (15U) may form well to the northwest of WA later in the week.

• A tropical low (15U) may develop well to the northwest of WA later in the week, most likely to the south of Christmas Island or further to the west and slowly develop.
• 15U may be steered to the west or southwest.
• There is a low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Saturday, increasing to Moderate next Monday.
• Although 15U will most likely pass to the south of Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, it may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity in the area.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:54 am UTC

Tropical Low 16U
Possible tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea early next week.

• Late in the week a tropical low (16U) may form in the far northeast of the Coral Sea, to the northwest of Vanuatu.
• The likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate during Monday.
• There is uncertainty with the potential development of this tropical low, particularly with the possible development of tropical lows further to the west.
• If the system develops it is likely to track generally southwards through the eastern parts of the Coral Sea next week.
• 16U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:53 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 31  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 31  Jan 12:00 pm

Sat 1  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 1  Feb 12:00 pm

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 12U

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

Tropical Low 14U

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

Tropical Low 15U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

Tropical Low 16U

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

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Tropical Low 12U
Slight chance of a tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria on the weekend.

• The chance of tropical low 12U developing into a tropical cyclone is a Low risk from Sunday through Wednesday.
• 12U has a slight chance of forming in the Gulf of Carpentaria this weekend.
• If the system forms it is likely to track generally south or southwest through the Gulf of Carpentaria early next week.
• By mid-next week, the system will likely weaken as it interacts with land, and the chance of it being a tropical cyclone drops to Very Low.
  

Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:35 am UTC

Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low may form northwest of the Kimberley over the weekend.

• A tropical low (14U) may form northwest of the Kimberley coast over the weekend.
• If it develops, the low is expected to move west and remain north of the WA coast.
• There is a Low risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone on Sunday through to Wednesday.
  

Last updated
6 hours ago, 09:01 am UTC

Tropical Low 15U
A tropical low (15U) to form well to the northwest of WA having an increasing risk of developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend over open waters

• A tropical low (15U) is expected to develop well to the northwest of WA and move to the west southwest remaining well away from the Pilbara coast.
• It is expected to develop with a moderate risk of being a tropical cyclone later Saturday increasing to high from Sunday.
• 15U is forecast to move over open waters and not directly affect coastal or island communities.
  

Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:49 am UTC

Tropical Low 16U
Possible tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea early next week.

• From Friday a tropical low (16U) may start to form in the far northeast of the Coral Sea, to the northwest of Vanuatu.
• The likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate Sunday night or during Monday.
• There is uncertainty with the potential development of this tropical low, particularly with the possible development of another tropical low in a similar area but further to the east.
• If the system develops it is likely to track generally southwards through the eastern parts of the Coral Sea next week.
• 16U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.
  

Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:56 am UTC

Tropical Low 17U
Slight chance of a tropical low (17U) forming over open waters of the Indian Ocean.

• A tropical low (17U) may form over open waters of the Indian Ocean to the west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands this weekend or early next week.
• The formation and development of 17U will be strongly influenced by 15U, which is likely to form to the east.
• At this stage there is a Low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Sunday.
• 17U will most likely linger to southwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity in the area.
  

Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:45 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 1  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 1  Feb 12:00 pm

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 pm

Thu 6  Feb 12:00 am

Thu 6  Feb 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 12U

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

Tropical Low 14U

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

Tropical Low 15U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

45 (Moderate)

Tropical Low 16U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

Tropical Low 17U

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 302330 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 164.0E
AT 301800 UTC.  POSITION POOR. TD05F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION UNORGANISED OVER SUPPOSSED LLCC. LLCC LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW TO LOW.

*********************************************************************
************

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 310737 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 162.8E
AT 310600 UTC.  POSITION POOR. TD05F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION UNORGANISED OVER SUPPOSSED LLCC. LLCC LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
************

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Tropical Low 12U
The risk of 12U significantly developing has decreased.

• The risk of 12U becoming a tropical cyclone has decreased, and as such this disturbance will not appear on subsequent tropical cyclone forecasts. The situation will continue to be monitored and updated here if required.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 08:41 am UTC

Tropical Low 16U
Possible tropical cyclone in the far eastern Coral Sea early next week.

• A tropical low (16U) is starting to form in the far northeastern Coral Sea, to the northwest of Vanuatu.
• The likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate Sunday night or during Monday.
• There is uncertainty with the potential development of this tropical low, particularly with the possible development of other tropical lows along a trough that extends east across Vanuatu.
• If the system develops it is likely to track generally southwards through the eastern parts of the Coral Sea next week.
• 16U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 09:02 am UTC

Tropical Low 17U
Tropical low unlikely to form over the open waters of the Indian Ocean.

• The risk of 17U developing into a tropical cyclone has decreased to Very Low and as such this disturbance will not appear on subsequent tropical cyclone forecasts. The situation will continue to be monitored and updated here if required.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 08:46 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 2  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 pm

Thu 6  Feb 12:00 am

Thu 6  Feb 12:00 pm

Fri 7  Feb 12:00 am

Fri 7  Feb 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 12U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

Tropical Low 16U

1 (Very Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

30 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

Tropical Low 17U

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 312225 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 166.0E
AT 312100UTC.  POSITION FAIR. TD05F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. TD05F LIES
IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH SHEAR TO THE SOUTH.
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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Tropical Low 16U
Possible tropical cyclone in the far eastern Coral Sea early next week.

• A weak tropical low (16U) is forming in the far northeastern Coral Sea, southwest of the Solomon Islands.
• The likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate on Monday.
• The system is likely to track generally southwards through the eastern parts of the Coral Sea next week.
• 16U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:37 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 5  Feb 12:00 pm

Thu 6  Feb 12:00 am

Thu 6  Feb 12:00 pm

Fri 7  Feb 12:00 am

Fri 7  Feb 12:00 pm

Sat 8  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 8  Feb 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 16U

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

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Tropical Low 18U
A tropical low (18U) may form off the Kimberley coast on the weekend and move southwest.

• Tropical Low (18U) is expected to move southwest, along or just off the Kimberley coast during the weekend and be located near the Pilbara coast on Monday.
• Environmental conditions are only marginally favourable for development. However, if 18U remains over waters off the Pilbara coast long enough, then the risk increases to low (10%) for Monday and Tuesday next week.
• In the longer term, only a small percentage of guidance keeps it over water, while the rest tends to push the low over land and weaken it from Wednesday onwards.
• Mainland and island communities along the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts should monitor forecasts and keep up with the updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 11:40 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 7  Feb 12:00 am

Fri 7  Feb 12:00 pm

Sat 8  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 8  Feb 12:00 pm

Sun 9  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 9  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 10  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 10  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 11  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 11  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 12  Feb 12:00 am

Tropical Low 18U

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

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Tropical Low 18U
A tropical low (18U) may form near the north Kimberley coast on the weekend and move southwest.

• Tropical Low (18U) is expected to move southwest, along or just off the Kimberley coast during the weekend and be located west of the Kimberley or north of the Pilbara on Monday.
• 18U may move south on Tuesday or Wednesday, and could move closer to the Pilbara coast.
• Although 18U is likely to be located water for a period, environmental conditions may inhibit development. There is a Low risk of 18U developing into a tropical cyclone.
• Mainland and island communities along the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts should monitor forecasts and keep up with the updates.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 11:07 pm UTC

Tropical Low 19U
A tropical low (19U) may form in the Coral Sea on the weekend then move eastwards, away from the Queensland coast.

• An active monsoon trough may persist across north Queensland during the week.
• A tropical low (19U) is expected to form in the Coral Sea off the coast of north Queensland on the weekend.
• The risk of 19U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low from Monday next week.
• 19U will move eastwards once it forms, away from the Queensland coast. It is likely to move to the east of the Australian region on Monday or Tuesday.
  

Last updated
3 hours ago, 12:37 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 8  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 8  Feb 12:00 pm

Sun 9  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 9  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 10  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 10  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 11  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 11  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 12  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 12  Feb 12:00 pm

Thu 13  Feb 12:00 am

Tropical Low 18U

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

Tropical Low 19U

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

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Tropical Low 18U
A tropical low (18U) may form near the north Kimberley coast on the weekend and move southwest.

• If Tropical Low 18U forms, it is expected to move southwest and off the west Kimberley coast during the weekend, It should be located west of the Kimberley or north of the Pilbara on Monday.
• 18U may move south on Tuesday or Wednesday, and could approach and cross the Pilbara coast.
• Although 18U is likely to be located over water for an extended period, environmental conditions may inhibit development. There is a Low risk of 18U developing into a tropical cyclone on Sunday, increasing to Moderate on Monday.
• Mainland and island communities along the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts should monitor forecasts and keep up with the updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 11:46 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sun 9  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 9  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 10  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 10  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 11  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 11  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 12  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 12  Feb 12:00 pm

Thu 13  Feb 12:00 am

Thu 13  Feb 12:00 pm

Fri 14  Feb 12:00 am

Tropical Low 18U

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)