莫桑比克海峡强热带风暴第12号“祖德”(25S.Jude) - 出海再次发展

天兔万宜一对CP

将出海

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 151328
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 46.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 620 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 740 SW: 715 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 470 SW: 445 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/17 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 175 NW: 140




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0+

JUDE HAS BEEN CROSSING SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR SINCE THIS MORNING.THE
LATEST GCOM AMSR2 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE FROM 1035Z POSITIONS THE
CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN TOLIARA PROVINCE.
IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION DECOUPLED FROM THE
CENTER AND LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE SEA, JUSTIFYING A SHEARED CLOUD
PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH LOCATED ON LAND, THE SYSTEM RETAINS A TROPICAL
ASPECT, ENABLING US TO PERFORM ANOTHER DVORAK ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATE A
CI OF 3.0+ WITH MEAN WINDS OF 40KT. HOWEVER, THE ACSAT SWATH AT 0556Z
STILL SHOWED WINDS OF 60KT CLOSE TO THE COAST, PROMPTING US TO
INCREASE THE WIND ESTIMATE FROM 12Z TO 45KT TO AVOID AN EXCESSIVE
DECREASE. WITH THIS AVERAGE WIND VALUE, MAX JUDE IS DOWNGRADED TO A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR THIS SATURDAY EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR
SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM THIS EVENING, AS IT MOVES OUT
OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS, VERY STRONG WINDS APPROACHING THE
STORM THRESHOLD SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CIRCULATION UNTIL SUNDAY, DUE TO BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINFALL THIS SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H) OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE REGION, WHICH COULD LOCALLY BECOME VERY HEAVY, REACHING
250 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST. END OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
IN THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 151448

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)

B. 15/1430Z

C. 24.78S

D. 46.98E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LINDGREN

Leonardo

TXXS27 KNES 151249
TCSSIO
CCA

A.  25S (JUDE)

B.  15/1115Z

C.  24.7S

D.  45.9E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  OVERLAND

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION BASED ON AMSR2 89 1031Z MW DATA. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVERLAND. CLASSIFICATIONS WILL CONTINUE WHEN THE
SYSTEM REGENERATES OVER WATER.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...BERTALAN

=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 151820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 48.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 945 SW: 915 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 650 SW: 520 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 870 SW: 795 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 530 SW: 445 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 75 NW: 0





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

JUDE MOVED OUT TO SEA AROUND 15UTC. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS REMAINED SHEARED, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS RATHER IMPRECISE DUE TO
THE POOR QUALITY OF THE MICROWAVES AVAILABLE BEFORE 18UTC, BUT IT IS
LOCATED IN A SOUTHERN POINT OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY AT THE NORTHERN
LIMIT OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SHOWS A CLEAR ACCELERATION OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLEAR INCREASE IN T OF
3.5+, I.E. ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS
NOTICEABLY STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT OF
0556UTC, IT IS DECIDED TO REVISE JUDE'S ESTIMATED WINDS UPWARDS, WITH
A VALUE OF 55KT. JUDE IS THEREFORE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN THE
PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, BUT WHOSE STRUCTURE IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING INTO
A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, JUDE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST, BEFORE
MERGING ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES. IN THIS CONTEXT, THERE IS NO LONGER ANY NEED TO FOLLOW
THE SYSTEM IN THE LONGER TERM.

RE-EMERGING OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT,
JUDE SHOULD REINTENSIFY BUT RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, THEN GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, VERY STRONG WINDS REACHING STORM LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION UNTIL SUNDAY, DUE TO
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND THE GRADIENT EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS IN PROGRESS. STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WAVES OF 6-8M UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 4-6M LASTING
UNTIL MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.=

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 25.3S 47.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 47.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 26.5S 52.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 27.9S 56.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 48.8E.
15MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384
NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 152100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
   
4. 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 25.3S 47.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 384 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 15 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL
    
18. BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CORE OF DEEP
    
19. CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF A
    
20. RAGGED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC) WHICH IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO THE
    
21. PRESENCE OF STRONG 40 TO 50 KT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
22. (VWS). DESPITE THE PARTIAL EXPOSE, TRACKING OF THE LLC HAS BEEN
    
23. CHALLENGING AS THE CIRCULATION WAS DISRUPTED BY PASSAGE OVER THE
    
24. TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, COMBINED WITH AN OVERALL SCARCITY
    
25. OF MICROWAVE DATA AND OCEAN SURFACE WIND PRODUCTS. WHILE A 151824Z
    
26. ASCAT-C OVERPASS DID NOT HAVE COVERAGE OVER THE LLC, IT HELPED
    
27. ESTABLISH THAT THE POSITION IS NORTHEAST OF AN INITIAL ASSESSMENT,
    
28. LEADING TO A REPOSITIONING OF THE 1518Z BEST TRACK. THE ASCAT ALSO
    
29. PROVIDED INSIGHT INTO THE LARGE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH
    
30. OF THE LLC. GIVEN THE VWS VECTOR, THE UPDATED POSITION WAS ANALYZED
    
31. TO BE NORTHWEST OF A DEFINED MID-LEVEL CENTER IN A 151820Z AMSU-B
    
32. 89GHZ IMAGE, ALBEIT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED
    
33. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO BE 50 KNOTS, GIVEN A RANGE OF DVORAK
    
34. VALUES FROM T3.0 TO T3.5. CIMSS OBJECTIVE AIDS RANGE FROM GENERALLY
    
35. 45 TO 55 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28
    
36. DEGREES CELSIUS. VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A NEARBY
    
37. SUBTROPICAL JET MAX IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE
    
38. UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VWS AND LOW MID-LEVEL
    
39. RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
    
40. 
    
41. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK WITH ASCAT PROVIDING
    
42. 35 KT INPUT FOR SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
    
43. 
    
44. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
    
45. 
    
46. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
47.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
48.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
49.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
50.    CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 151645Z
    
51.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 151800Z
    
52. 
    
53. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
54.    VWS: 40+ KTS
    
55.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
56.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
57.    OTHER FACTORS: ASSESSED AS TROPICAL BUT BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL
    
58. TRANSITION
    
59. 
    
60. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
61.    INITIAL POSITION: LOW
    
62.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
63.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
64. 
    
65. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
66. 
    
67. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
68. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
69. 
    
70. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
    
71. TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. SST
    
72. SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECLINE, AND VWS WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO A
    
73. LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS
    
74. BEGINNING AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE
    
75. STRONG JET SUPPORT, LITTLE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
    
76. FORECAST PERIOD.
    
77. 
    
78. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE
    
79. CROSS-TRACK DIRECTION, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION
    
80. CARRIES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE SPREAD
    
81. IN ALONG TRACK POSITIONS, WITH MUCH FASTER FORWARD SPEEDS SEEN IN
    
82. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE COMPARED TO ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE. THE TRACK
    
83. WAS PLACED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS MEAN.
    
84. 
    
85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
86.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
87.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
88. NNNN

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