莫桑比克海峡强热带风暴第12号“祖德”(25S.Jude) - 出海再次发展

yhh

WTXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 007   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 41.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 41.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 24.2S 43.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 24.9S 46.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 25.3S 49.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 26.2S 52.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 42.1E.
14MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
140600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 140900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)
   
4. WARNING NR 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 23.0S 41.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 91 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS INDICATED
    
18. IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), WHICH DEPICTS
    
19. CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
20. CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH FRAGMENTED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
    
21. IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AND IS WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
    
22. LLCC DESPITE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
    
23. IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 140357Z SSMIS 37GHZ
    
24. MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
    
25. MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
26. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
    
27. SST VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND,
    
28. OFFSETTING THE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS OF THE NORTHWESTERLY VWS. TC 25S
    
29. PASSED OVER EUROPA ISLAND (61972) AT ABOUT 132300Z PRODUCING PEAK 10-
    
30. MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS, WITH MINIMUM SLP NEAR 988MB. THE
    
31. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
    
32. WITH A TRACK LIKELY TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF TOLIARA (67161) CURRENTLY
    
33. REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 12 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
    
34. INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
    
35. AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE
    
36. EYE STRUCTURE.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
41. POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
45.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
46.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
47.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 140200Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 140304Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 140700Z
    
51. 
    
52. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
53.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
54.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
55.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
56. 
    
57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
61. 
    
62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
63. 
    
64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
65. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
    
68. THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    
69. RIDGE (STR), MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. TC 25S WILL PEAK AT 55
    
70. KNOTS OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN WILL
    
71. WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. STRONG
    
72. SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MADAGASCAR BY TAU
    
73. 12, WITH INCREASING (35-45 KNOTS) VWS LEADING TO A RAPIDLY DEGRADING
    
74. ENVIRONMENT. A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE THE SYSTEM AFTER
    
75. TAU 36 INITIATING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT), WITH TC 25S TRACKING
    
76. ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL
    
77. COMPLETE STT BY TAU 48 AND WILL SLOW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE
    
78. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
    
81. REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH INCREASING SPREAD
    
82. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING MEDIUM OVERALL
    
83. CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
84. SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48, WITH HAFS-A
    
85. AND HWRF INDICATING A SHORT REINTENSIFICATION PERIOD ASSOCIATED
    
86. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH.
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
91. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：张 玲  2025 年 03 月 14 日 18 时
“祖德”15日早晨即将登陆马达加斯加西南部

时       间：14日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬23.0度、东经41.6度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：985百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加图利亚拉西偏北方向约220公里的莫桑比克海峡内

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”由8级加强到10级

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东南方向移动，即将于15日早晨（北京时）在图利亚拉省西南部沿海登陆（11~12级，30~35米/秒，相当于我国强热带风暴级到台风级），以后自西向东穿过马达加斯加南部，将于15日夜间移入西南印度洋，逐渐远离马达加斯加。

风雨影响：“祖德”对马达加斯加的风雨影响主要集中在14日至15日白天，预计14日夜间到15日白天，莫桑比克海峡、马达加斯加中部和南部沿海将有7~9级大风，阵风10级，“祖德”中心经过的附近海域或地区可达10~12级，阵风13~14级；马达加斯加西部和南部沿海将有中到大雨，其中马达加斯加南部沿海有暴雨（50~80毫米）。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月14日14时00分）


图2 南印度洋强热带风暴“祖德”未来72小时路径概率预报图

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 141221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 42.4 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 405 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 480 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 250 SW: 565 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 630 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 335 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/17 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 595 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 10 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 0


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=2.5 CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN HAS FADED,
CONCENTRATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER WITH INCREASINGLY
COLD HIGHS IN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION. FROM THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY, AN ANALYSIS IN PT OF 2.5 CAN BE MADE SHOWING A CLEAR
WEAKENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME. BY CONSERVATION,
THE CI REMAINS AT 3.5 WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 50KT
CORRESPONDING TO THE VALUES PROVIDED BY THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OF
0617UTC. JUDE REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY
TO INTENSIFY IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE, JUDE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL CONTINUING OVER THE
MASCAREIGNES, AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS, LANDFALLING OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA. THE LOCATION IS
BECOMING CLEARER A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF TOLIARA EARLY
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, DUE TO A SLIGHT ACCELERATION. AN EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THEN
IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES. THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS WILL FADE OVER THE LONG
TERM AS IT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH.

INTENSIFICATION IS SLOW IN COMING AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
LESS CONDUCIVE TO JUDE INTENSIFICATION, WITH DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SHOULD NO LONGER BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT. IN THESE CONDITIONS,
STILL STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINS UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H), PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF TOLIARA AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.
- GALES EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING, STRENGTHENING TO STORM FORCE
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING OF FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY TO HEAVY SEAS (6M LOCALLY MORE) FROM FRIDAY MORNING.
HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SEAS (4 TO 6M) UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE
SOUTH COAST.
- SURGE OF AROUND 50CM NEAR IMPACT ZONE.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 141955
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 500 SW: 465 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 500 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SW: 500 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 85

48H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 520 SW: 500 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 95

60H: 2025/03/17 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 205


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS STRENGTHENED
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WRAPPING WEST
AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CURVED BAND WRAPS MORE THAN 0.8 ROUND,
GIVING A DT OF 3.5, IN LINE WITH THE MET AND PT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM,
DELIBERATELY ABOVE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS DUE TO AN EFFECTIVE INTENSITY
THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE SYSTEM'S
SATELLITE APPEARANCE SINCE THIS FRIDAY MORNING, AND PROLONGING THE
50/55 KT MEASURED ON FRIDAY MORNING'S ASCAT PASS, WHICH ARE PROBABLY
EXCEEDED THIS EVENING UNDER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE'S VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THUS MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR JUST SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF TOLIARA IN THE
MIDDLE OR LATE HOURS OF THE NIGHT. AN EXIT TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES.

INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM. JUDE IS THUS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE. LATER ON, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDS
SHOULD MORE OR LESS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM SATURDAY EVENING, AS IT
MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT,
JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF TOLIARA AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H), PARTICULARLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM NOW ON AND
UNTIL SATURDAY MIDDAY ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 24.6S 43.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 43.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 25.1S 45.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 25.6S 48.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 25.8S 51.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 43.8E.
14MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
223 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 142100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
   
4. 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 24.6S 43.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 223 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) MAINTAINING A STEADY INTENSITY AS
    
19. SHORT-LIVED AND FLARING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE THROUGHOUT
    
20. THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAP INTO THE SYSTEMS WESTERN FLANK.
    
21. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
    
22. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FRAGMENTED WITH RELATIVELY MINIMAL
    
23. ORGANIZATION, AN EARLIER 141533Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS
    
24. REVEALED A LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE-FEATURE. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
    
25. SUSTAINED STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF OVER 30
    
26. KNOTS HAS CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
    
27. SEMICIRCLE CONVECTION FREE, EVIDENT BY OBSERVABLE LOW-LEVEL
    
28. STRATOCUMULUS LINES WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
    
29. AND A SHARP BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES
    
30. OF PRESENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. ALOFT, A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL
    
31. CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED INTENSITIES AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE
    
32. EQUATORWARD-EXTENDING LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSISTS IN THE SOUTHWARD
    
33. OUTFLOW MECHANISM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
34. CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER 141533Z SSMIS 37
    
35. GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
    
36. IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
37. BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
38. 
    
39. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
40. 
    
41. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
42. POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
43. 
    
44. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
45.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
46.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
47.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
48.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
49.    CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 141630Z
    
50.    CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 141830Z
    
51.    CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 141830Z
    
52.    CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 141534Z
    
53.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 141830Z
    
54. 
    
55. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
56.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
57.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
58.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
59. 
    
60. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
61.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
62.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
63.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
64. 
    
65. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
66. 
    
67. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
68. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
69. 
    
70. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) IS FORECASTED
    
71. TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
    
72. OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DIRECTLY TO THE NORTHEAST
    
73. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 12
    
74. HOURS, TC JUDE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
    
75. MADAGASCAR, SOUTH OF TOLIARA. DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL
    
76. QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD AND REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
    
77. BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, TC 25S WILL
    
78. TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
    
79. COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, TC JUDE
    
80. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM
    
81. INITIALLY MAKES LANDFALL WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL
    
82. TRANSITION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING, LONGWAVE
    
83. TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND
    
84. REENTERS THE INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, COMPETING
    
85. STEERING MECHANISMS WITH TWO OPPOSING SUBTROPICAL RIDGES, SUSTAINED
    
86. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER 30 KNOTS, AND UPPER-LEVEL MID-
    
87. LATITUDE JET SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TC JUDE, THEN MAINTAIN 45
    
88. KNOTS BY THE COMPLETION OF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36.
    
89. 
    
90. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
    
91. THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 43 NM. AFTER TAU
    
92. 24, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO WIDEN THROUGH TAU 36 AS
    
93. COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD TRACK,
    
94. LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH REGARD
    
95. TO INTENSITY, A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 36
    
96. HOUR PERIOD. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTED SUBTROPICAL
    
97. TRANSITION AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, CONFIDENCE
    
98. REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
99. 
    
100. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
101.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
     
102.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
103. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 150048
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 520 SW: 555 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 575 SW: 630 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 650 SW: 665 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 760 SW: 740 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 425 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 95

48H: 2025/03/17 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 425 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 175 NW: 205



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

A PARTIAL SMAP PASS AT 1546Z MEASURED WINDS OF 69 KT IN THE SYSTEM'S
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MEASUREMENT'S
QUALITY ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SWATH, THIS SUGGESTS THAT
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WERE POSSIBLY PRESENT AT 18Z AT PEAK INTENSITY.
IT ALSO SUPPORTS A WIND ESTIMATE WELL ABOVE DVORAK'S CI NUMBER. THE
CURVED BAND PATTERN PRESENT AROUND 18Z GRADUALLY DETERIORATED AFTER
19Z, WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. JUST BEFORE 00Z, THE CLOUD
PATTERN SHIFTED TO A SHEARED PATTERN WITH INTENSE CONVECTION RESUMING
AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITH A CENTER LOCATED AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE 2225Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, WITH THE CONVECTIVE CORE
WEAKENING AND BECOMING BROADER IN ITS NORTHERN PART. IT ALSO SHOWS
POSSIBLE MESO-VORTICES ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE
CENTER. DUE TO INERTIA, THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT IN THE
SOUTH-WEST QUADRANT, SINCE IT WAS POSSIBLY AT 65 KT AT 18Z (THIS WILL
BE SETTLED IN POST-ANALYSIS).
THE SYSTEM'S CENTER WAS STILL AT SEA AT 00Z, BUT COULD MAKE LANDFALL
AROUND 02Z ABOUT 100-150 KM SOUTH OF TOLIARA.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THUS MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE LATE HOURS OF THE NIGHT. AN EXIT TO
THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

JUDE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE,
WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS MAINLY LOCATED AT SEA IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, POSSIBLY RAKING THE SOUTHERN MALAGASY COAST
WHILE IT MOVES ALONG. LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM
SATURDAY EVENING, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS, VERY
STRONG WINDS UP TO STORM-FORCE INTENSITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINFALL THIS SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H) OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST. END OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
IN THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=

ygsj24

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：吕心艳  签发：张 玲  2025 年 03 月 15 日 10 时

“祖德”即将登陆马达加斯加西南部

时       间：15日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬24.5度、东经43.6度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：982百帕

参考位置：位于马达加斯加图利亚拉省西南部近岸海面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”强度略有增强

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向偏东方向移动，即将在图利亚拉省西南部沿海登陆（10级，25~28米/秒，相当于我国强热带风暴级），之后自西向东穿过马达加斯加南部，将于15日夜间移入西南印度洋，逐渐远离马达加斯加，强度逐渐减弱并变性为温带气旋。

风雨影响：预计15日白天至夜间，受“祖德”影响，莫桑比克海峡中南部、马达加斯加中部和南部沿海将有6~8级大风，阵风9~10级，“祖德”中心经过的附近海域或地区可达9~10级，阵风11~12级；马达加斯加南部沿海将有中到大雨，局部有暴雨（50~80毫米）。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月15日08时00分）


图2 南印度洋强热带风暴“祖德”未来36小时路径概率预报图

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 150645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 44.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 520 SW: 520 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 170 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 770 SW: 770 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 705 SW: 715 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 445 SW: 445 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 130

48H: 2025/03/17 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 565 SW: 565 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

JUDE MADE LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES HELP US POSITION ITS CENTER, WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTH OF TULEAR PROVINCE. VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND, BUT IS STILL
ACTIVE OVER THE SEA. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON A SHEAR-LIKE
ASPECT. AN ARC OF CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE SEEN TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK'S
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LEADS US TO PROPOSE A T AT 2.5 AND KEEP THE CI AT
3.5 BY INERTIA, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND OF 45 TO
50KT.
JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THUS MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE LATE HOURS OF THE NIGHT. AN EXIT TO
THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE
ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE
ARCHIPELAGO.

JUDE SHOULD KEEP STORM-FORCE WINDS MAINLY LOCATED AT SEA IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, POSSIBLY RAKING THE SOUTHERN
MALAGASY COAST WHILE IT MOVES ALONG. LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. FROM SATURDAY EVENING, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, VERY STRONG WINDS UP TO STORM-FORCE INTENSITY ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION DUE TO BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINFALL THIS SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H) OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE REGION, WHICH COULD LOCALLY BECOME VERY HEAVY, REACHING
250 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST. END OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
IN THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=

---

WTIO30 FMEE 150720 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 44.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 520 SW: 520 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 170 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 770 SW: 770 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 705 SW: 715 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 445 SW: 445 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 130

48H: 2025/03/17 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 565 SW: 565 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

JUDE MADE LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES HELP US POSITION ITS CENTER IN THE SOUTH OF TULEAR
PROVINCE. VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT, OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND BUT IS STILL ACTIVE OVER THE
SEA. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON A SHEAR-LIKE ASPECT. AN ARC OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE SEEN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM,
INDICATING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LEADS
US TO PROPOSE A T AT 2.5 AND KEEP THE CI AT 3.5 BY INERTIA, WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND OF 45 TO 50KT.
JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THUS MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE LATE HOURS OF THE NIGHT. AN EXIT TO
THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE
ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE
ARCHIPELAGO.

JUDE SHOULD KEEP STORM-FORCE WINDS MAINLY LOCATED AT SEA IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, POSSIBLY RAKING THE SOUTHERN
MALAGASY COAST WHILE IT MOVES ALONG. LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. FROM SATURDAY EVENING, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, VERY STRONG WINDS UP TO STORM-FORCE INTENSITY ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION DUE TO BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINFALL THIS SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H) OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE REGION, WHICH COULD LOCALLY BECOME VERY HEAVY, REACHING
250 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST. END OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
IN THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 44.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 44.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 25.3S 47.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 25.9S 51.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 27.4S 55.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 45.4E.
15MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 150900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
   
4. 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 25.0S 44.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
    
13. MADAGASCAR
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) TRANSITING OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
    
20. MADAGASCAR. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS OVER 40 KTS
    
21. FROM THE NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN ALL ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BEING
    
22. CONTAINED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
    
23. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
24. ANIMATED SHORTWAVE IR LOOP SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
    
25. WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TC 25S. THIS ASSESSMENT IS CONSISTENT
    
26. WITH THE ANALYSIS OF THE MULTI-MODEL (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET) PRESSURE
    
27. FIELDS AND LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
    
28. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
    
29. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
30. BASED ON PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND MINIMAL LAND INTERACTION, AS TC 25S
    
31. RETAINS MAJORITY OF ITS MOMENTUM THROUGHOUT THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN
    
32. MADAGASCAR.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
37. THE NORTHEAST
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
41.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 150250Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 150530Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
46.    VWS: 40+ KTS
    
47.    SST: OVER LAND
    
48.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
61. EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WATER
    
62. WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
    
63. PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
64. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE SYSTEM AS
    
65. SOON AS TAU 12, INITIATING A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). TC JUDE IS
    
66. FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, ASSISTED BY AN
    
67. INJECTION OF WARM (27-28 C) WATER AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET
    
68. BY AN INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME FULLY
    
69. SUBTROPICAL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 45 KTS, DUE TO RAPIDLY COOLING SEA
    
70. SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND FURTHER
    
71. INCREASING VWS.
    
72. 
    
73. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
74. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH CROSS-TRACK OF 75 NM. THE GUIDANCE
    
75. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTERWARDS, AS TRACKS BEGIN TO SPLIT BETWEEN
    
76. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS FOLLOWING A SOUTHEASTWARD PATH AND
    
77. DETERMINISTIC GFS TRACKER RAPIDLY TURNING NORTHEASTWARD. GFS GUIDANCE
    
78. PAST TAU 36 APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY A DEVELOPING AND COMPETING STR TO
    
79. THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
    
80. JTWC TRACK GUIDANCE IS THEREFORE ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
81. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED
    
82. SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. JTWC INTENSITY
    
83. FORECAST IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE
    
84. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STT TIMELINE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
    
85. DISSIPATION PRIOR TO OR JUST AFTER THE TRANSITION COMPLETION, AS
    
86. INDICATED BY THE GFS GUIDANCE.
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
91. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：吕心艳  签发：张 玲  2025 年 03 月 15 日 18 时

“祖德”已登陆马达加斯加

时       间：15日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬24.7度、东经44.6度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：983百帕

参考位置：位于马达加斯加图利亚拉省西南部境内

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”强度变化不大，并已于今天（15日）上午在马达加斯加图利亚拉省西南部沿海登陆（10级，28米/秒，相当于我国强热带风暴级）

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向偏东方向移动，横穿马达加斯加南部，将于今天夜间移入西南印度洋，逐渐远离马达加斯加。

风雨影响：预计15日夜间至16日白天，受“祖德”影响，莫桑比克海峡中南部、马达加斯加中部和南部沿海将有6~8级大风，阵风9~10级，“祖德”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达9~10级，阵风11~12级；马达加斯加南部沿海将有中到大雨，局地有暴雨（50~80毫米）。


图1 卫星可见光监测图像（北京时间2025年03月15日14时00分）


图2 南印度洋强热带风暴“祖德”未来36小时路径概率预报图