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[值得关注] 莫桑比克海峡强热带风暴第12号“祖德”(25S.Jude) - 出海再次发展

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Super Typhoon

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发表于 2025-3-13 15:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-3-13 15:45 编辑



WTIO30 FMEE 130650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 37.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 140

36H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95

48H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 75

72H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SW: 480 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED ITS SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL'S WARM SURFACE WATERS. IT HAS
KEPT VERY INTENSE CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN PART OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS CONVECTION SHOWS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION ACCORDING TO
THIS MORNING'S MICROWAVE IMAGES (F18 AT 0118Z, GPM AT 0245Z) AS WELL
AS CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CENTER'S LOCATION IS RATHER
IMPRECISE, ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS. A 0544Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWS WINDS UP TO 38 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS IN SHEARED OR CURVED BAND PATTERNS VARIES BETWEEN 2.5 AND
3.0, GIVING AN ESTIMATED FINAL T-NUMBER OF 3.0-. THESE DIFFERENT
INPUTS ENABLE US TO ESTIMATE THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AT 40 KT, WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS PROBABLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CHANNEL AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN EXIT TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

JUDE SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE), AND COULD
REACH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY TOMORROW FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH.  COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR,
THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS
IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND THE MIDDLE OF THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT NEAR THE NORTH OF TOLIARA AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN
24H, LOCALLY 300 MM POSSIBLE).
- VERY ROUGH SEA (4 TO 6M) FROM FRIDAY.

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强热带风暴

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发表于 2025-3-13 15:46 | 显示全部楼层
穿过了马拉维,估计灾情不一般

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论坛版主-副热带高压

原来,明天见,是最伟大的预言

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-3-13 17:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-13 18:55 编辑




WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 005//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121451ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 005   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 37.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 37.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 20.8S 39.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 22.1S 41.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 23.2S 43.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 23.8S 45.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 24.1S 50.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 37.8E.
13MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221
NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA
SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 25S, THEREFORE, JTWC IS RESUMING
WARNINGS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 121500).//
NNNN
  1. WDXS32 PGTW 130900
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)
  4. WARNING NR 005//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  8. SUMMARY:
  9.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.6S 37.4E
  10.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
  11.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 221 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND
  12.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
  13.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

  14. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  15. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
  16. CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND
  17. A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
  18. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
  19. CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
  20. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM
  21. CONFIDENCE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SPARSE, HOWEVER, A 130318Z
  22. SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
  23. CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
  24. WESTERN QUADRANT, AND NO DEFINED LLCC. A 130300Z SMAP WINDSPEED IMAGE
  25. AND PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGERY REVEAL A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 35-45
  26. KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH WEAKER WINDS OVER THE
  27. NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
  28. BASED ON THE SMAP AND ASCAT DATA, WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
  29. RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE,
  30. WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST
  31. VALUES.

  32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA

  33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
  34. POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

  35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  36.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS (130830Z)
  37.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  38.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS

  39. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  40.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
  41.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  42.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

  43. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  44.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
  45.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  46.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  47. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  48. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
  49. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

  50. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S WILL TRACK EAST-
  51. SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
  52. THROUGH TAU 72. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
  53. 24 HOURS. THUS, TC 25S SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50
  54. KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
  55. UNDER AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL
  56. INTRODUCE INCREASING VWS (20-35 KNOTS) AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE
  57. THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU 36. AFTER
  58. TAU 36, TC 25S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG
  59. VWS (40-60 KNOTS), EMERGING OVER WATER EAST OF MADAGASCAR EMBEDDED
  60. WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY,
  61. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
  62. HOWEVER, DISSIPATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

  63. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ONLY
  64. THROUGH TAU 36, WITH A 30NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU
  65. 36, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY LENDING LOW OVERALL
  66. CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES
  67. INDICATE INCREASING PROBABILITIES (40 PERCENT) FOR A STRONG (50-63
  68. KNOTS) TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN
  69. MADAGASCAR PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DETERMINISTIC INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A
  70. LARGE SPREAD OF PEAK INTENSITIES FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36 RANGING FROM 37
  71. TO 57 KNOTS.

  72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  73.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  74.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
  75. NNNN
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生命因何而沉睡,因为总有一天我们会从梦中醒来

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发表于 2025-3-13 17:56 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:黄奕武  签发:向纯怡  2025 年 03 月 13 日 18 时
“祖德”再次加强为热带风暴

时       间:13日14时(北京时)

海       域:南印度洋

命       名:“祖德”,JUDE

中心位置:南纬19.9度、东经37.7度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:997百帕

参考位置:莫桑比克索法拉省贝拉偏东方向约300公里的洋面上

变化过程:“祖德”由莫桑比克移入海峡,强度由热带低压再次加强到8级

预报结论:“祖德”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向东偏南方向移动,强度逐渐增强。


图1 卫星监测图像(北京时间2025年03月13日14时00分)

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顶级超台

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发表于 2025-3-13 20:24 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-13 21:30 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 131239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 38.1 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 165

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130

24H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95

36H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 110

48H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 75

72H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SW: 455 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED A BIT IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STORM, PROBABLY DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE, BUT HAS
REMAINED INTENSE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, GRADUALLY FORMING A
CURVED BAND. THE CIRCULATION STILL APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD, WITH
PROBABLY TWO OR THREE SMALL SECONDARY VORTICES, AS SUGGESTED BY THE
1049Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM'S CENTER IS THUS ESTIMATED TO
BE AT THE GRAVITY CENTER OF THESE VORTICES AND IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE ESTIMATES. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, JUDE'S
INTENSITY IS KEPT STATIONARY AT 40 KT.
AT EUROPA ISLAND'S WEATHER STATION, AS THE STORM GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH-WEST, ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE HAS DROPPED FROM 1006 TO
1002 HPA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z, AND THE MEAN WIND NOW REACHES ALMOST 20
KT, SHOWING THAT THE ISLAND IS STILL AWAY FROM THE NEAR-GALE FORCE
WINDS, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODEL ESTIMATES.

UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CHANNEL AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN EXIT TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL DISPERSION IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S
FORWARD SPEED OF MOVEMENT, WITH THE LATEST RUNS TENDING TO DELAY
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR A LITTLE.

JUDE SHOULD KEEP ON GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL'S VERY WARM WATERS, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE), AND COULD
REACH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY TOMORROW FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH. COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR,
THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL AND THEN LEAD TO THE
SYSTEM'S WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN
IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT PROBABLY AT LESS THAN 100 KM FROM
TOLIARA NEAR SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM FRIDAY EARLY MORNING. STORM-FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND MAYBE UNTIL THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN
24H, LOCALLY 200-300 MM POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN 48H).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS (4 TO 6M) FROM FRIDAY, POSSIBLY UNTIL SUNDAY.=

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WTIO30 FMEE 131833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 39.3 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 205

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 465 SW: 455 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 95

60H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 110

72H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 575 SW: 565 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, JUDE HAS MAINTAINED A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER, CLOUD TOPS REMAIN COLD. OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA (AROUND
150KM SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER AT 18Z) AND WIND DATA FROM
THE 1049Z AMSR2 PASS SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS EXCEEDING 40KT. THE LATEST
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1547Z ALSO SUGGESTS A MORE SYMMETRICAL
INNER CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 45KT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE
PROVINCE OF TOLIARA ON FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR THE CITY OF TOLIARA. IT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY EVENING, THEN
MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
IS SIGNIFICANT REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S MOTION SPEED. THE LATEST IFS
RUN (12Z) IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON A SLOWER
CONSENSUS FOR THE TIME BEING.

JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (MODERATE SHEAR IN THE MOTION DIRECTION, VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE), AND SHOULD REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, LIMITING ITS INTENSIFICATION.
COMBINED WITH THE TRANSIT OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, THIS SHOULD THEN
LEAD TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER
THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT PROBABLY AT LESS THAN 100 KM FROM
TOLIARA LIKELY AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY FROM FRIDAY EARLY MORNING. STORM-FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200-300
MM POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN 48H).ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN PARTS.
- VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS (6M) FROM FRIDAY MORNING. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS (4 TO 6M) UP TO SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTHERN COAST.=

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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-14 04:30 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 006   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 39.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 39.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 22.5S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 23.6S 43.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 24.3S 46.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 24.7S 48.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 24.9S 53.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 40.0E.
13MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN





  1. WDXS32 PGTW 132100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
  4. 006//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  8. SUMMARY:
  9.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.1S 39.5E
  10.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
  11.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 77 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND
  12.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
  13.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

  14. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  15. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
  16. QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING
  17. PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
  18. (LLCC), BUT SO FAR UNABLE TO WRAP UPSHEAR. A 131814Z ASCAT-B
  19. BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A SMALL RMW OF ABOUT
  20. 25NM AND AN EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD, PARTICULARLY LARGE IN
  21. THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ACCOMPANYING AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
  22. IMAGE DEPICTS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM, WITH A DISTINCT
  23. COMMA-SHAPED ARC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF
  24. THE ROTATION, WITH A TAIL OF SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES EXTENDING TO
  25. THE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
  26. POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA
  27. NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
  28. CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE OBJECTIVE AND
  29. SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NOTED ABOVE (THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION BEING THE
  30. FMEE T3.0 ESTIMATE), IN LINE WITH THE 40-45 KNOT WINDS OBSERVED IN
  31. THE ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
  32. DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WARM SSTS,
  33. AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

  34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

  35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR
  36. EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH.

  37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  38.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  39.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  40.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  41.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  42.    CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 131730Z
  43.    CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 131800Z
  44.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 131800Z
  45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 131550Z
  46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 131800Z

  47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  48.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
  49.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

  51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  52.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
  54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

  55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S IS FORECAST TO
  59. CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
  60. A NER CENTERED TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG
  61. THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, NEAR THE TOWN OF TOLIARA, IS
  62. EXPECTED AROUND TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE TRACKING
  63. EASTWARD, MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MADAGASCAR,
  64. AND REEMERGING OVER WATER BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. TRACK SPEEDS
  65. ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES MADAGASCAR BUT
  66. PICK UP SPEED ONCE AGAIN AFTER MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
  67. OCEAN. ONCE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
  68. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED INTO THE
  69. EQUATORWARD END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE
  70. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
  71. IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM SSTS, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
  72. CHANNEL AND RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR VALUES. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
  73. TO BE REACHED JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, BETWEEN TAU 18 AND TAU 24,
  74. AND COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DISCRETE FORECAST VALUES
  75. INDICATE. SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH LANDFALL, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
  76. RAPIDLY INCREASE, ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR,
  77. WHICH COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OVER LAND WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHARP
  78. WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MADAGASCAR. THE CIRCULATION
  79. THAT EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RETAIN
  80. GALE-FORCE WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST, AND MERGES WITH THE BAROCLINIC
  81. ZONE ALREADY IN-PLACE. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY IN FACT DISSIPATE
  82. PRIOR TO FULL STT, DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION
  83. THAT MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 36.

  84. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
  85. THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. MODELS
  86. BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER LANDFALL WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OPENING UP
  87. TO ABOUT 115NM AT TAU 36, INCREASING EVEN MORE THROUGH THE
  88. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND GEFS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO REFLECT
  89. THE REST OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS IN DEPICTED A GENERALLY
  90. SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST,
  91. THOUGH THEY DO START TO TURN NORTHWARD BY TAU 72. THE REMAINDER OF
  92. THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
  93. SHOWING A TRACK TO THE EAST THAT STEADILY SLOWS DOWN AS RIDGING
  94. DEVELOPS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AFTER TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
  95. IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12
  96. TO 18 HOURS, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 50-55 KNOTS PRIOR TO
  97. LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WEAKENING OVER LAND AND GENERALLY
  98. STEADY-STATE THEREAFTER DURING STT. THE COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A ARE
  99. THE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS IN THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER, DEPICTING THE
  100. SYSTEM MAINTAINING 50 KNOT OR HIGHER INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96,
  101. WHICH IS ON THE FACE OF IT HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THE JTWC FORECAST
  102. TRACES THE HWRF, GFS, AND DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE WITH MEDIUM
  103. CONFIDENCE.

  104. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  105.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  106.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
  107. NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2025-3-14 09:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-14 09:20 编辑





WTIO30 FMEE 140115
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 40.7 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SW: 400 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120

24H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 120

36H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 425 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 100

60H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 870 SW: 835 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 555 SW: 480 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY EVOLVED
INTO A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
1813Z ASCAT DATA AND EUROPA OBSERVATIONS HAVE HELPED REPOSITIONING
JUDE'S POSITION FURTHER SOUTH-EAST THAN INITIALLY ESTIMATED. GIVEN
THE PRESSURE MEASURED AT EUROPA (988HPA), THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED
AT 50KT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE
PROVINCE OF TOLIARA ON FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE CITY OF TOLIARA
(TIMING AND LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN). IT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY EVENING, THEN MERGE WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY AT LONGER RANGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST, TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE 18Z GUIDANCE, WHICH REPRESENT BETTER THE INITIAL
POSITION, LEADING TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.

JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (MODERATE SHEAR IN THE MOTION DIRECTION, VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH, LIMITING ITS INTENSIFICATION. STILL, AN
INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVER
THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT PROBABLY SOUTH OF TOLIARA, LIKELY AS
A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, EVENTUALLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY FROM FRIDAY EARLY MORNING. STORM-FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200-300
MM POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN 48H), ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN PARTS.
- VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS (6M, LOCALLY MORE) FROM FRIDAY MORNING.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS (4 TO 6M) UP TO SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST.
- 50CM STORM SURGE NEAR THE LANDFALL.

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生命因何而沉睡,因为总有一天我们会从梦中醒来

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发表于 2025-3-14 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:曹迈  签发:张 玲  2025 年 03 月 14 日 10 时
“祖德”15日将登陆马达加斯加

时       间:14日08时(北京时)

海       域:南印度洋

命       名:“祖德”,JUDE

中心位置:南纬22.4度、东经40.7度

强度等级:强热带风暴

最大风力:10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:988百帕

参考位置:马达加斯加图利亚拉西偏北方向约320公里的莫桑比克海峡内

变化过程:过去24小时,“祖德”由7级加强到10级

预报结论:“祖德”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东南方向移动,即将于15日早晨(北京时)在图利亚拉省西南部沿海登陆(10~12级,28~33米/秒,相当于我国强热带风暴级到台风级),以后自西向东穿过马达加斯加南部将于15日夜间移入西南印度洋,逐渐远离马达加斯加。

风雨影响:“祖德”对马达加斯加的风雨影响主要集中在14-15日白天,预计14日中午到15日白天,莫桑比克海峡、马达加斯加中部和南部沿海将有7~9级大风,阵风10级,“祖德”中心经过的附近海域或地区可达10~12级,阵风13~14级;莫桑比克北部、马达加斯加西部和南部将有中到大雨,其中马达加斯加南部沿海有暴雨到大暴雨(70~120毫米)。


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2025年03月14日08时00分)


图2 南印度洋强热带风暴“祖德”未来72小时路径概率预报图

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发表于 2025-3-14 14:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-3-14 15:05 编辑




WTIO30 FMEE 140640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 41.4 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/06 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SW: 480 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 470 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 120

36H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 445 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 445 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 575 SW: 695 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS CONTINUED.
CAUSED BY THE PRESENCE OF MADAGASCAR, THE CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN
PART IS EXTENDING, BUT WITH CLOUDY TOPS THAT ARE STRUGGLING TO COOL.
THE PART NEAR THE CENTER HAS ALSO WARMED UP A LITTLE OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PART LOCATED FAR IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CIRCULATION CANNOT BE INCLUDED IN JUDE'S CLOUD PATTERN, BEING
MORE RELATED TO THE CONVERGENCE OF MONSOON FLOWS COMING DOWN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IN SUCH A PATTERN, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PROPOSE A
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH T-ANALYSIS. A PT OF 3.5- FOR A CLOUD CLUSTER
PATTERN IS MORE APPROPRIATE. HOWEVER, THIS LEAVES A WIND ESTIMATE
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST VALUES DERIVED FROM THE PREVIOUS ASCAT.
JUDE REMAINS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AT 50KT.

WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, JUDE
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CHANNEL CONTINUING OVER THE MASCAREIGNES, AND A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH-EASTWARDS, LANDFALLING OVER SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE
PROVINCE OF TOLIARA. THE LOCATION IS BECOMING CLEARER A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF TOLIARA EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT, DUE TO A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION. AN EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR IS
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES. THE
DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS STILL SIGNIFICANT, ESPECIALLY AT LONG
RANGE, REFLECTING THE MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANTLY MERGING WITH THE
TROUGH.

JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (MODERATE SHEAR IN THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT, VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS SET TO STRENGTHEN
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, LIMITING ITS INTENSIFICATION, AND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED JUST BEFORE THE LANDFALL.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT, KEEPING WINDS STILL STRONG IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- RAINS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE CONVERGENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW
OVER THE NORTH OF THE PROVINCE (AND EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH OF
MAHAJANGA PROVINCE) WHICH WILL DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAINS UNTIL
SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200-300 MM POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN
48H), PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF TOLIARA AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM, POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
- GALES EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING, STRENGTHENING TO STORM FORCE
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING OF FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE LIKELY NEAR
IMPACT ZONE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
- VERY HEAVY TO HEAVY SEAS (6M LOCALLY MORE) FROM FRIDAY MORNING.
HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SEAS (4 TO 6M) UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE
SOUTH COAST.
- SURGE OF AROUND 50CM NEAR IMPACT ZONE.

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