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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-14 04:30 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 39.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 39.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.5S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.6S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.3S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.9S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 40.0E.
13MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 132100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
- 006//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 21.1S 39.5E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 77 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
- QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING
- PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
- (LLCC), BUT SO FAR UNABLE TO WRAP UPSHEAR. A 131814Z ASCAT-B
- BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A SMALL RMW OF ABOUT
- 25NM AND AN EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD, PARTICULARLY LARGE IN
- THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ACCOMPANYING AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
- IMAGE DEPICTS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM, WITH A DISTINCT
- COMMA-SHAPED ARC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF
- THE ROTATION, WITH A TAIL OF SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES EXTENDING TO
- THE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
- POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA
- NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE OBJECTIVE AND
- SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NOTED ABOVE (THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION BEING THE
- FMEE T3.0 ESTIMATE), IN LINE WITH THE 40-45 KNOT WINDS OBSERVED IN
- THE ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
- DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WARM SSTS,
- AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR
- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 131730Z
- CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 131800Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 131800Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 131550Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 131800Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S IS FORECAST TO
- CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
- A NER CENTERED TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG
- THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, NEAR THE TOWN OF TOLIARA, IS
- EXPECTED AROUND TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE TRACKING
- EASTWARD, MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MADAGASCAR,
- AND REEMERGING OVER WATER BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. TRACK SPEEDS
- ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES MADAGASCAR BUT
- PICK UP SPEED ONCE AGAIN AFTER MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
- OCEAN. ONCE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
- SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED INTO THE
- EQUATORWARD END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE
- SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
- IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM SSTS, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
- CHANNEL AND RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR VALUES. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
- TO BE REACHED JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, BETWEEN TAU 18 AND TAU 24,
- AND COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DISCRETE FORECAST VALUES
- INDICATE. SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH LANDFALL, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
- RAPIDLY INCREASE, ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR,
- WHICH COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OVER LAND WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHARP
- WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MADAGASCAR. THE CIRCULATION
- THAT EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RETAIN
- GALE-FORCE WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST, AND MERGES WITH THE BAROCLINIC
- ZONE ALREADY IN-PLACE. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY IN FACT DISSIPATE
- PRIOR TO FULL STT, DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION
- THAT MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 36.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
- THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. MODELS
- BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER LANDFALL WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OPENING UP
- TO ABOUT 115NM AT TAU 36, INCREASING EVEN MORE THROUGH THE
- REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND GEFS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO REFLECT
- THE REST OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS IN DEPICTED A GENERALLY
- SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST,
- THOUGH THEY DO START TO TURN NORTHWARD BY TAU 72. THE REMAINDER OF
- THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
- SHOWING A TRACK TO THE EAST THAT STEADILY SLOWS DOWN AS RIDGING
- DEVELOPS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AFTER TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
- IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12
- TO 18 HOURS, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 50-55 KNOTS PRIOR TO
- LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WEAKENING OVER LAND AND GENERALLY
- STEADY-STATE THEREAFTER DURING STT. THE COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A ARE
- THE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS IN THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER, DEPICTING THE
- SYSTEM MAINTAINING 50 KNOT OR HIGHER INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96,
- WHICH IS ON THE FACE OF IT HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THE JTWC FORECAST
- TRACES THE HWRF, GFS, AND DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2025-3-13 15:00
