莫桑比克海峡强热带风暴第12号“祖德”(25S.Jude) - 出海再次发展

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 03 月 11 日 18 时
“祖德”减弱为热带低压

时       间：11日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬15.4度、东经36.4度

强度等级：热带低压

最大风力：6级（13米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压）

中心气压：1002百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克赞比西亚省境内

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”由12级减弱到6级

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。

（这是关于“祖德”的最后一期监测公报）


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月11日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 111238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 35.5 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 75

72H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 425 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD CONFIGURATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. JUDE IS
STILL MOVING OVER LAND, WITH ITS CENTER ESTIMATED AT 150NM INLAND.
PERIPHERAL BANDS CURRENTLY AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN CABO DELGADO
PROVINCE AND SOFALA PROVINCE IN MOZAMBIQUE, AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN
TANZANIA. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS AND THEN EASTWARDS, PASSING OVER SOUTHERN
MALAWI OVERNIGHT. AN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL DRIVEN BY THIS RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, JUDE SHOULD CROSS THE CHANNEL AND LAND OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA LATE ON FRIDAY. AN EXIT TO THE
EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE DAY. THERE ARE FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCES ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER A DISPERSION
IS TO BE NOTED IN TERMS OF TIMING. TO NAME BUT TWO, GFS IS MUCH
FASTER THAN IFS ON THE EXIT AND SEA TRANSIT OVER THE CHANNEL. THE
RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS,
APPROACHING AIFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 25KT AS IT PASSES
OVER LAND. THEN, ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, BENEFITING
FROM FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW,
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL), IT COULD INTENSIFY
AGAIN TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AGAIN. AFTER A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OVER MADAGASCAR, IT COULD
INTENSIFY AGAIN TO THE EAST AND BEGIN A TRANSITION TO THE
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- SOUTHERN TANZANIA, NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO AND NAMPULA
PROVINCES): IMPROVEMENT IN HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
- MOZAMBIQUE (MANICA AND SOFALA PROVINCES): HEAVY RAINS (200-250MM IN
48H).
- MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE): GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY. ARRIVAL OF VERY HEAVY SEAS LATE ON FRIDAY
AROUND CAPE SAINT VINCENT. HEAVY RAIN FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.


THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.=

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 111459

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)

B. 11/1430Z

C. 16.38S

D. 35.63E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC
OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   RAE

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-
121800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11MAR25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.3S 79.1E, APPROXIMATELY 880 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 25S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1S
35.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. AN 111101Z AMSR2 GW1 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, AS WELL AS
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY
OVER LAND. HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND STRONG
VERTICAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT 25S WILL REMAIN WELL CONSOLIDATED AND
TRACK OVER WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/120600Z-121800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111951ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11MAR25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8S 77.0E, APPROXIMATELY 806 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 112100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 25S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.1S 35.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 35.1E, APPROXIMATELY 139 NM NORTH
OF BEIRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
REMNANTS OF 25S AS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FEEDING INTO A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND AND ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND A VERY HUMID LAYER ARE ALL GREATLY SUPPORTING THE
REGENERATION POTENTIAL. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 25S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
BACK OVER WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

yhh

WTIO30 FMEE 120638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 34.5 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 195

36H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 65

48H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 175

60H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 110

72H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 415 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS, JUDE'S CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE TRANSITED OVER
SOUTHERN MALAWI. THIS MORNING, IT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE
ZAMBEZE VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF TETE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS WEAK
NEAR THE CENTER, BUT IS STRONGER ALONG THE COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE TRACK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARDS AND
EMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVERNIGHT. JUDE SHOULD THEN CROSS
THE CHANNEL AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR IN THE
TOLIARA PROVINCE LATE ON FRIDAY. JUDE MAY EMERGE TO EAST OF
MADAGASCAR LATER ON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW
SHEAR, GOOD CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS), AND ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.  HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY FROM THURSDAY EVENING, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
OCEAN, JUDE SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

SOUTHERN MALAWI AND MOZAMBIQUE (ZAMBEZIA, TETE AND MANICA PROVINCES):
- HEAVY RAINS LOCALLY POSSIBLE (50MM IN 24H)
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE NIGHTFALL

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 300MM)
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ON THE COASTLINE
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE, FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H, LOCALLY MORE)
- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEA (4M)

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 121259
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 35.3 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 110

24H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 165

36H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 155

48H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 155

60H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 95

72H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, JUDE'S CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS. ITS EXACT POSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WITH CAIA'S 09Z OBSERVATIONS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WEAK NEAR THE CENTER, BUT IS MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG
THE COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE TRACK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
OVERNIGHT. JUDE SHOULD THEN CROSS THE CHANNEL AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR IN THE TOLIARA PROVINCE LATE ON FRIDAY. JUDE
MAY EMERGE TO EAST OF MADAGASCAR LATER ON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW
SHEAR, GOOD CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS), AND ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.  HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY FROM THURSDAY EVENING, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
OCEAN, JUDE SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

SOUTHERN MALAWI AND MOZAMBIQUE (ZAMBEZIA, TETE AND MANICA PROVINCES):
- HEAVY RAINS LOCALLY POSSIBLE (50MM IN 24H)
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE NIGHTFALL

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 300MM)
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ON THE COASTLINE
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE, FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H)
- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEA (4 TO 6M)=

pocketbox

WTXS21 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 25S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7S 35.2E TO 20.5S 39.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031212Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 35.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 25S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.4S 35.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 35.5E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BEIRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF 25S AS A QUICKLY REGENERATING CIRCULATION WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP
ALONG THE COASTLINE. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, THE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE MOVING FORWARD, AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), VERY STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A VERY HUMID LAYER COUPLED WITH THE ZAMBEZI
RIVER BENEATH ARE ALL GREATLY SUPPORTING THE REGENERATION POTENTIAL.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 25S WILL BE COMPLETELY OVER THE WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131500Z.
//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 121824
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 35.4 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 205 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 140

36H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 175

48H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 95

60H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 360 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE JUDE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE CONTINUED
MOVING SOUTHEAST. ITS EXACT POSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WITH WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BEIRA AND QUELIMANE
STATIONS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS WEAK NEAR THE CENTER, BUT IS
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE TRACK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
OVERNIGHT. JUDE SHOULD THEN CROSS THE CHANNEL AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR IN THE TOLIARA PROVINCE LATE ON FRIDAY. JUDE
MAY EMERGE TO EAST OF MADAGASCAR LATER ON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW
SHEAR, GOOD CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS), AND ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.  HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY FROM THURSDAY EVENING, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
OCEAN, JUDE SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAINS (50-100MM OVERNIGHT)
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ON THE COASTLINE
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE, FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H)
- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEA (4 TO 6M)=

yhh

WTIO30 FMEE 130034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/12/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 36.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

24H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 445 SW: 295 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 120

48H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 175 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE JUDE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OUT TO SEA NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE ZAMBEZE RIVER AT AROUND 2230Z. THE POSITION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WITH WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BEIRA
AND QUELIMANE STATIONS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW CLOSE TO THE
CENTER, ALLOWING A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5-. JUDE HAS THEREFORE BEEN
RECLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH WINDS OF 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS, CROSSING THE CHANNEL AND LANDING OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA LATE ON FRIDAY.
AN EXIT TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE DAY,
BUT IT SHOULD MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE
GUIDELINES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW
SHEAR, GOOD CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS), AND ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.  HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY FROM THURSDAY EVENING, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
OCEAN, JUDE SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY. STRONG STORM
WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM FRIDAY DURING THE DAY (100-200MM IN 24H).
- HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SEAS 4 TO 6M FROM FRIDAY.