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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-11 20:55 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 111238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)
2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 35.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
48H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0
60H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 75
72H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 0
120H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 425 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 100
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD CONFIGURATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. JUDE IS
STILL MOVING OVER LAND, WITH ITS CENTER ESTIMATED AT 150NM INLAND.
PERIPHERAL BANDS CURRENTLY AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN CABO DELGADO
PROVINCE AND SOFALA PROVINCE IN MOZAMBIQUE, AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN
TANZANIA. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25KT.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS AND THEN EASTWARDS, PASSING OVER SOUTHERN
MALAWI OVERNIGHT. AN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL DRIVEN BY THIS RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, JUDE SHOULD CROSS THE CHANNEL AND LAND OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA LATE ON FRIDAY. AN EXIT TO THE
EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE DAY. THERE ARE FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCES ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER A DISPERSION
IS TO BE NOTED IN TERMS OF TIMING. TO NAME BUT TWO, GFS IS MUCH
FASTER THAN IFS ON THE EXIT AND SEA TRANSIT OVER THE CHANNEL. THE
RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS,
APPROACHING AIFS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 25KT AS IT PASSES
OVER LAND. THEN, ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, BENEFITING
FROM FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW,
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL), IT COULD INTENSIFY
AGAIN TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AGAIN. AFTER A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OVER MADAGASCAR, IT COULD
INTENSIFY AGAIN TO THE EAST AND BEGIN A TRANSITION TO THE
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- SOUTHERN TANZANIA, NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO AND NAMPULA
PROVINCES): IMPROVEMENT IN HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
- MOZAMBIQUE (MANICA AND SOFALA PROVINCES): HEAVY RAINS (200-250MM IN
48H).
- MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE): GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY. ARRIVAL OF VERY HEAVY SEAS LATE ON FRIDAY
AROUND CAPE SAINT VINCENT. HEAVY RAIN FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.
THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.=
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