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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-13 04:45 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.3S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.0S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 28.0S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 38.9S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 70.5E.
12MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 122100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR
- 010//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 20.2S 71.0E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 771 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
- SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A RECENTLY
- DEVELOPED POCKET OF DEEPENING CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE
- SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD AND
- THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
- JUST NORTH OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. A 121655Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
- IMAGE DEPICTED SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A
- WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD LLCC, WITH THE ONLY AREA OF CONVECTIVE
- DEVELOPMENT LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 121653Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL
- PASS AND A 121335Z RCM-1 SAR PASS REVEALED THE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC
- NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD, WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
- OF THE CIRCULATION, AND A BROAD REGION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS ACROSS
- THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
- POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B PASS
- AND THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
- ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE
- OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ABOVE IN LIGHT OF THE
- RECENT SAR AND ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY
- UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VWS, MODEST
- OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND SAR DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 37 KTS AT 121658Z
- CIMSS ADT: 26 KTS AT 121800Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 121700Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 22 KTS AT 121334Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 121800Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
- UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 20-25 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR OVER TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24S HAS ALREADY STARTED TO TRACK
- SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
- THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS,
- WITH THE SYSTEM STEADILY TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD OVER TIME, UNTIL IT
- REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE, THE
- SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
- FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
- MAINTAIN STEADY INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, BUT THEN IS
- FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
- HIGHLY DIFFLUENCE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
- TROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
- MOISTURE, WHILE GIVING THE SYSTEM A BIT OF A BOOST IN OUTFLOW,
- ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THE
- UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, AT ABOUT
- THE SAME TIME THAT IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AND WILL
- BE SMOTHERED BY ANOTHER INFLUX OF VERY DRY AIR AS WELL AS
- CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
- TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48, AS IT BEGINS TO SIMULTANEOUSLY RAPIDLY
- WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WHILE ALSO
- DISSIPATING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA NO LATER THAN TAU 72 AND
- POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 48.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
- AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD INCREASING TO 110NM AT TAU 36, WHEN THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
- RIDGE, OPENING UP TO ABOUT 160NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- GFS TURNS THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL PACKAGE
- AND MARKS THE INSIDE OR EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE NAVGEM
- MARKS THE WESTERN SIDE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
- CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
- GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL OF THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOWING
- A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION UP TO 40 KNOTS, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
- WEAKENING PHASE AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
- THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
- NNNN
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