罗德里格斯岛以东强热带风暴第13号“伊沃娜”(23U/24S.Ivone) - 西南移动

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 03 月 11 日 18 时
“伊沃娜”向偏西方向移动

时       间：11日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“伊沃娜”，IVONE

中心位置：南纬20.4度、东经79.2度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：998百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约2260公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“伊沃娜”强度维持不变

预报结论：“伊沃娜”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度变化不大。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月11日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 111228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 78.4 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 750 SW: 750 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SW: 335 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 455 SW: 530 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SW: 240 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SW: 240 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IVONE
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BUT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CENTER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ANALYZED AT 20KT BY
CIMSS. THE 1056Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS CONVECTION WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER, WITH LESS MARKED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. WITH NO
DATA AVAILABLE, IVONE IS MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM, BUT
WITH WINDS DOWN TO 35KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FEW CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, IVONE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARDS UNTIL TOMORROW. IVONE SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHWARDS
WITHIN 48 HOURS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE AND MOVING AWAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE IS SET TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH A DETERIORATING STRUCTURE. IN
ADDITION, WESTERLY SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR SHOULD ACCENTUATE
THE SLOW FILLING IN OF IVONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IT COULD STILL
MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE
TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Leonardo

TPXS10 PGTW 111457

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE)

B. 11/1430Z

C. 19.31S

D. 77.28E

E. FOUR/MET9

F. 2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   RAE

Leonardo

TXXS28 KNES 111150
TCSSIO

A.  24S (IVONE)

B.  11/1115Z

C.  19.9S

D.  78.8E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T1.5/2.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER OVER 1.25
DEGREES TO THE NW OF A VERY SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0
USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET IS 2.0. THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE PT DUE TO FLUCTUATING CONVECTION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK

=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 111821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/13/20242025
1.A REMNANT LOW 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 76.9 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 815 SW: 740 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 510 SW: 425 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SW: 405 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 470 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 435 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 470 SW: 400 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IVONE HAS CONTINUED TO DISPLAY A HIGHLY
SHEARED PATTERN, LINKED TO THE WEST-NORTH-WEST CONSTRAINT ESTIMATED
AT 15/20KT BY CIMSS, WHICH IS OPPOSING THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT HEAD-ON,
AS SHOWN BY THE SHEAR ARC IN THE SATELLITE IMAGE ANIMATION. THE LLC
IS IN FACT A LONG WAY FROM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WHOSE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 12Z.
THE 1532Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B SWATH STILL SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY OF THE MEAN WIND BRINGS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 45KT.

FEW CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. IVONE CONTINUES TO BE GUIDED BY
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. IVONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE MAKING A DEFINITIVE TURN TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES
AT THE END OF THE WEEK FROM THURSDAY, PUSHED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

REGARDING THE INTENSIVE FORECAST IVONE IS SET TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CONSTRAINT BRINGING CONTINUOUS DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD THUS BE RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE SYSTEM FILLING IN, IT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WIND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE,
MAINLY DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 77.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 77.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 19.9S 74.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 20.8S 71.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 22.3S 69.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 25.0S 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 32.2S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 40.2S 77.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 76.4E.
11MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 112100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR
   
4. 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.8S 77.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 806 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEARLY
    
18. CONVECTION FREE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PATCHES OF DEEP
    
19. CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN
    
20. SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
21. WITHIN THE EXPOSED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT
    
22. IN EIR IMAGERY AND AN 111710Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL
    
23. INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
    
24. PARTIAL 111533Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATING 40-45 KT WINDS WITHIN
    
25. THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. ASCAT DATA AND AN
    
26. EARLIER 111228Z SMOS PASS INDICATE A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD,
    
27. WITH SUB-GALE FORCE WINDS EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PORTION
    
28. OF THE CIRCULATION.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA (111626Z METOP-C
    
31. ASCAT) AND OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
34. THE SOUTH
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
39.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
40.    FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 111623Z
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 26 KTS AT 111800Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 111700Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 111348Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 111800Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
49.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EASTWARD
    
51.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
    
64. PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE
    
65. FORECAST PERIOD, TURNING GRADUALLY POLEWARD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS
    
66. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RECURVING AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD
    
67. THEREAFTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN THE
    
68. NEAR-TERM, WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
69. YIELDING A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THE WIND FIELD IS
    
70. EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASYMMETRIC THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH THE
    
71. STRONGEST WINDS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AFTER
    
72. TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS OVER COOLER (BELOW 26C) WATER WHILE
    
73. SIMULTANEOUSLY INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
    
74. FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 24S
    
75. WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE TRANSITION, LIKELY DISSIPATING
    
76. BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KTS BY TAU 96 AS IT
    
77. BECOMES A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
    
80. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WHILE SPREAD INCREASES SLIGHTLY
    
81. DUE TO DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF STORM ACCELERATION DURING THE
    
82. SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY FORECAST
    
83. GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING HAFS AND
    
84. COAMPS-TC, INDICATES A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND WITH SOME
    
85. BAROCLINIC SUPPORT PROVIDED DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DESPITE
    
86. A SUBOPTIMAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE
    
87. DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
91.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
93.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
    
94. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 03 月 12 日 10 时
“伊沃娜”向偏南方向移动

时       间：12日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“伊沃娜”，IVONE

中心位置：南纬19.9度、东经75.5度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：998百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约1880公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“伊沃娜”强度维持不变

预报结论：“伊沃娜”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度变化不大。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月12日08时00分）

yhh

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 74.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 74.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 20.3S 71.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 22.0S 69.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 24.8S 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 28.0S 67.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 36.8S 73.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 37 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 46.3S 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 73.6E.
12MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z AND 130900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 120900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR
   
4. 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 74.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 751 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A NEARLY
    
18. FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
    
19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IVONE). CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC IS SHALLOW
    
20. AND FRAGMENTED, WHILE A BROADER AREA OF CONSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IS
    
21. DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVERGENT FLOW AND
    
22. HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
23. BASED ON THE 120421Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWING AN
    
24. ELONGATED LLCC, WITH ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
    
25. 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
    
26. ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS A BROAD PATCH OF 35 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
    
27. SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS WARM (27-28
    
28. C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), OFFSET BY A WEAKENING OUTFLOW, DRY
    
29. AIR NEARY FULLY SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND STRONG (30+ KTS)
    
30. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 120421Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
35. THE SOUTH
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
39.    KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS
    
40.    CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 120217Z
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 120300Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 120500Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-MINT: 22 KTS AT 120101Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 120500Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
47. UNFAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
49.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EASTWARD
    
51.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24S IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING WESTWARD, JUST
    
64. PRIOR TO TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL
    
65. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE SOUTH AND THE STEERING
    
66. PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
    
67. SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE, IT WILL TRANSIT OVER RAPIDLY
    
68. COOLING SST, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT
    
69. TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 72, TC 24S WILL APPROACH THE BAROCLINIC
    
70. ZONE AND WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
    
71. TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 96, TC 24S WILL BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW,
    
72. WHILE BEING LOCATED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET.
    
73. 
    
74. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    
75. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 100 NM
    
76. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE ONLY OUTLIER BEING ECMWF, WHICH
    
77. DOES NOT EXTEND THAT FAR AND INDICATES A SHORTER DISSIPATION
    
78. TIMELINE. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO OVER 200 NM BY THE END OF
    
79. THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ALL TRACKERS CHARACTERIZED BY THE SAME
    
80. TRANSLATION DIRECTION, INDICATING CONSISTENTLY RECOGNIZED STEERING
    
81. PATTERN. INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL
    
82. CONSENSUS, BUT IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, DUE TO MODERATE
    
83. INITIAL UNCERTAINTY. WHILE GFS AND COAMPS-TC ARE INDICATING 35-45 KT
    
84. INTENSITY THROUGHOUT TAU 72, HAFS IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR
    
85. INTENSIFICATION UP TO 55 KTS BY TAU 24, FOLLOWED BY A GOOD
    
86. AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS, IN REGARD TO THE WEAKENING TREND. JTWC
    
87. INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS, COAMPS-TC AND
    
88. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DESCRIBED
    
89. EARLIER.
    
90. 
    
91. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
92.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
93.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
94.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
95.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
96. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：渠鸿宇  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 03 月 12 日 18 时
“伊沃娜”减弱为热带低压

时       间：12日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“伊沃娜”，IVONE

变化过程：“伊沃娜”已于今天上午减弱为热带低压

（这是关于“伊沃娜”的最后一期监测公报）

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 71.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 71.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 22.3S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 25.0S 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 28.0S 66.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 31.1S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 38.9S 76.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 70.5E.
12MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 122100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR
   
4. 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.2S 71.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 771 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
    
18. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A RECENTLY
    
19. DEVELOPED POCKET OF DEEPENING CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE
    
20. SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD AND
    
21. THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
    
22. JUST NORTH OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. A 121655Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
    
23. IMAGE DEPICTED SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A
    
24. WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD LLCC, WITH THE ONLY AREA OF CONVECTIVE
    
25. DEVELOPMENT LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 121653Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL
    
26. PASS AND A 121335Z RCM-1 SAR PASS REVEALED THE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC
    
27. NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD, WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
    
28. OF THE CIRCULATION, AND A BROAD REGION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS ACROSS
    
29. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
    
30. POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B PASS
    
31. AND THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
    
32. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE
    
33. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ABOVE IN LIGHT OF THE
    
34. RECENT SAR AND ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY
    
35. UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VWS, MODEST
    
36. OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND SAR DATA
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
41. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS SATCON: 37 KTS AT 121658Z
    
46.    CIMSS ADT: 26 KTS AT 121800Z
    
47.    CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 121700Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-MINT: 22 KTS AT 121334Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 121800Z
    
50. 
    
51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
52. UNFAVORABLE
    
53.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
54.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
55.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
56.    OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR OVER TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
    
57. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
    
58. 
    
59. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
60.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
61.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
62.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
63. 
    
64. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
65. 
    
66. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
67. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
68. 
    
69. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24S HAS ALREADY STARTED TO TRACK
    
70. SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
    
71. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS,
    
72. WITH THE SYSTEM STEADILY TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD OVER TIME, UNTIL IT
    
73. REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE, THE
    
74. SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
75. FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
    
76. MAINTAIN STEADY INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, BUT THEN IS
    
77. FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
    
78. HIGHLY DIFFLUENCE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
    
79. TROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
    
80. MOISTURE, WHILE GIVING THE SYSTEM A BIT OF A BOOST IN OUTFLOW,
    
81. ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THE
    
82. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, AT ABOUT
    
83. THE SAME TIME THAT IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AND WILL
    
84. BE SMOTHERED BY ANOTHER INFLUX OF VERY DRY AIR AS WELL AS
    
85. CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
    
86. TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48, AS IT BEGINS TO SIMULTANEOUSLY RAPIDLY
    
87. WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WHILE ALSO
    
88. DISSIPATING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA NO LATER THAN TAU 72 AND
    
89. POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 48.
    
90. 
    
91. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
    
92. AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CROSS-TRACK
    
93. SPREAD INCREASING TO 110NM AT TAU 36, WHEN THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
    
94. RIDGE, OPENING UP TO ABOUT 160NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
95. GFS TURNS THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL PACKAGE
    
96. AND MARKS THE INSIDE OR EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE NAVGEM
    
97. MARKS THE WESTERN SIDE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
    
98. CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
    
99. GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL OF THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOWING
    
100. A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION UP TO 40 KNOTS, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
     
101. WEAKENING PHASE AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
     
102. THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
     
103. 
     
104. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
105.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
     
106.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
     
107. NNNN

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