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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-3-10 15:35 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 100651
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)
2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 39.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 0
24H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0
36H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0
48H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 55
72H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 150
120H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=X (OVERLAND)
JUDE MADE LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE) NEAR
ILHA DE MOCAMBIQUE SHORTLY AFTER 02UTC, IN THE MATURE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GPM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0310Z SHOWS A
PARTICULARLY SOLID INTERNAL STRUCTURE AT 85GHZ, AS WELL AS AT 37GHZ.
ALTHOUGH JUDE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED SINCE LANDING, IT IS VERY
LIKELY FROM MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS (INCLUDING SSMIS F16) THAT THE
SYSTEM IS STILL GENERATING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS
DOWNGRADED TO THE SUPERIOR STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FOR 60KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BY MID-WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MALAWI,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE SOUTHEAST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT SCENARIO
SUGGESTS AN EXIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. IT WOULD THEN FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN THE
SHORT TERM OVER MOZAMBIQUE LANDMASS. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE WHEN IT RE-EMERGES AT SEA, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL,
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 300MM)
- STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST, LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.
MOZAMBIQUE (NIASSA, ZAMBEZIA, SOFALA, MANICA AND TETE PROVINCES) AND
SOUTHERN MALAWI :
- HEAVY RAINS (100M IN 24H, 150-200MM IN 48H, LOCALLY MORE) DURING
THE PASSAGE OF JUDE.
- STORM FORCE WINDS.
- IMPROVING FROM THURSDAY. |
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