莫桑比克海峡强热带风暴第12号“祖德”(25S.Jude) - 出海再次发展

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝  签发：张 玲  2025 年 03 月 10 日 10 时
“祖德”已登陆莫桑比克东部沿岸

时       间：10日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬14.9度、东经40.6度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（35米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：972百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克纳卡拉东偏南63公里附近沿岸

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”由8级加强到12级

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度快速减弱。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月10日08时00分）


图2 南印度洋热带气旋“祖德”未来120小时路径概率预报图

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钱奇峰  签发：宋佳凝  2025 年 03 月 10 日 10 时
“祖德”已登陆莫桑比克东部沿岸

时        间：10日08时（北京时）

海        域：南印度洋

命        名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬14.9度、东经40.6度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（35米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：972百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克纳卡拉东偏南63公里附近沿岸

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”由8级加强到12级

预报结论：“祖德”已于今天上午8时左右登陆莫桑比克东部沿岸（12级，35米/秒，相当于我国的台风级），“祖德”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度快速减弱。

风雨影响：受“祖德”影响，预计10日夜间至11日白天，莫桑比克东部和北部等地将有大到暴雨，局地特大暴雨，累计降水量可达100~200毫米，局部地区降水量甚至超过300毫米；莫桑比克中北部及沿海、莫桑比克海峡将有8~9级大风，“祖德”中心经过的附近海域和地区风力可达10~12级、阵风13~14级。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月10日08时00分）


图2 南印度洋热带气旋“祖德”未来120小时路径概率预报图

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 100651
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 39.8 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 55

72H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 150

120H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=X (OVERLAND)

JUDE MADE LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE) NEAR
ILHA DE MOCAMBIQUE SHORTLY AFTER 02UTC, IN THE MATURE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GPM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0310Z SHOWS A
PARTICULARLY SOLID INTERNAL STRUCTURE AT 85GHZ, AS WELL AS AT 37GHZ.
ALTHOUGH JUDE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED SINCE LANDING, IT IS VERY
LIKELY FROM MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS (INCLUDING SSMIS F16) THAT THE
SYSTEM IS STILL GENERATING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS
DOWNGRADED TO THE SUPERIOR STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FOR 60KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BY MID-WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MALAWI,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE SOUTHEAST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT SCENARIO
SUGGESTS AN EXIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. IT WOULD THEN FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN THE
SHORT TERM OVER MOZAMBIQUE LANDMASS. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE WHEN IT RE-EMERGES AT SEA, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL,
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 300MM)
- STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST, LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (NIASSA, ZAMBEZIA, SOFALA, MANICA AND TETE PROVINCES) AND
SOUTHERN MALAWI :
- HEAVY RAINS (100M IN 24H, 150-200MM IN 48H, LOCALLY MORE) DURING
THE PASSAGE OF JUDE.
- STORM FORCE WINDS.
- IMPROVING FROM THURSDAY.

yhh

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 004   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 39.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 39.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 15.3S 38.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 15.5S 36.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 16.0S 35.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 39.5E.
10MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 59 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 25S MADE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 35NM SOUTH
OF NACALA AT 100000Z AND HAS TRACKED INLAND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE CORE CONVECTION, WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, A 100308Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A NEAR-COMPLETE
EYEWALL SURROUNDING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36, WITH
A SHARP TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48 AS THE STR SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. TC 25S
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND AND SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REEMERGE OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY TAU 72, WITH GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
100600Z IS 983 MB. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 03 月 10 日 18 时
“祖德”向偏西方向移动

时       间：10日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬15.2度、东经39.9度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：972百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克索法拉省贝拉东北方向约740公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”由11级加强到12级

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月10日14时00分）


图2 南印度洋热带气旋“祖德”未来120小时路径概率预报图

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：宋佳凝  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 03 月 10 日 18 时
“祖德”向偏西方向移动

时       间：10日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬15.2度、东经39.9度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：972百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克东部沿岸

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”由11级加强到12级

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月10日14时00分）


图2 南印度洋热带气旋“祖德”未来120小时路径概率预报图

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 101247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 39.0 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SW: 380 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 65

120H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 370 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=X (OVERLAND)

JUDE LANDED OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE) NEAR ILHA DE
MOCOAMBIQUE LATER THAN 02UTC, IN THE MATURE STAGE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SINCE THEN, CONVECTION HAS NATURALLY WARMED UP AS IT HAS
MOVED OVERLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS ESTIMATED
USING INDICATIONS FROM THE NAMPULA STATION (OMM:67237). THE PASSAGE
OF THE PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS AT 0645Z STILL PRESENTED WINDS OF 55KT
ALONG THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE RECENT
ORGANIZATION OF THE STRUCTURE AND THE OBJECTIVE DATA, THE SYSTEM WAS
DOWNGRADED TO OVERLAND DEPRESSION FOR 50KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BY MID-WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MALAWI,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT SCENARIO
SUGGESTS AN EXIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. IT WOULD THEN FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN THE
SHORT TERM OVER MOZAMBIQUE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN
IT EMERGES AT SEA, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO, NIASSA):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H)
- STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST, LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT LATE NEXT NIGHT.

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA, MANICA AND TETE PROVINCES) AND SOUTHERN MALAWI :
- HEAVY RAINS (200-400 MM IN 48H, OR MORE THAN 400-500MM IN 72H OVER
SOFALA PROVINCE).
- STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOFALA/ZAMBEZIA
COAST. RAPID IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.=

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 101446

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)

B. 10/1430Z

C. 14.56S

D. 38.24E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC
OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   RAE

---

TXXS27 KNES 100553
TCSSIO

A.  25S (JUDE)

B.  10/0515Z

C.  15.1S

D.  39.7E

E.  ONE/MET-9

F.  OVERLAND

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...DVORAK VALUES N/A DUE TO LLCC OVR LAND. SYSTEM PRESENTATION
MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH EYE BECMG APPARENT ON EIR SINCE MOVING INLAND. 0302Z
GMI PASS SHOWED WELL-DEFINED EYE AND TIGHT INNER CORE. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW
GOOD ALQDS AND EXPANDING. BULLETINS WILL RESUME ONCE SYSTEM MOVES BACK
OUT OVR WATER.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KONON

=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 101922
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 37.9 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55

120H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=X (OVERLAND)

JUDE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
LAND. THE PRESSURE MEASURED AT THE NAMPULA STATION AT 1530Z IS 996
HPA LESS THAN 100 KM FROM THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS A
DEPRESSION ON LAND WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35KT ALONG THE
COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BY MID-WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MALAWI,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT SCENARIO
SUGGESTS AN EXIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. IT WOULD THEN FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 25-30KT. A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS THEN
EXPECTED AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR,
STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL).

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO, NIASSA):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H)
- STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST, LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT LATE NEXT NIGHT.

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA, MANICA, ZAMBEZA AND TETE PROVINCES) AND SOUTHERN
MALAWI :
- HEAVY RAINS (200-400 MM IN 48H, OR MORE THAN 400-500MM IN 72H OVER
SOFALA PROVINCE).
- STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOFALA/ZAMBEZIA
COAST. RAPID IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.=

yhh

WTIO30 FMEE 110050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 37.3 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 390 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 425 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 85

120H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=X (OVERLAND)

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS
VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARED FOR THE DEPRESSION OVER TERRE JUDE. HOWEVER,
THE PERIPHERAL BANDS REMAIN ACTIVE. THE 1915Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS OF ALMOST 35 KT PERSIST ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COAST
(ZAMBEZA PROVINCE).

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BY MID-WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MALAWI,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT SCENARIO
SUGGESTS AN EXIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. IT WOULD THEN FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR BEFORE A PROBABLE LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 25-30KT. A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS THEN
EXPECTED AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR,
STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL).

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO, NIASSA):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H)
- GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA, MANICA, ZAMBEZA AND TETE PROVINCES) AND SOUTHERN
MALAWI :
- HEAVY RAINS (200-400 MM IN 48H, OR MORE THAN 400-500MM IN 72H OVER
SOFALA PROVINCE).
- STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOFALA/ZAMBEZIA
COAST. RAPID IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 03 月 11 日 10 时
“祖德”位于莫桑比克境内

时       间：11日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬14.9度、东经37.3度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：998百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克楠普拉省境内

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”由12级减弱到8级

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏南转东南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，13日白天“祖德”将再次入海加强。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月11日08时00分）


图3 南印度洋热带气旋“祖德”未来120小时路径概率预报图

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 110645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 36.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 120

72H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 315 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 75

120H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD CONFIGURATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. JUDE IS
STILL MOVING OVER LAND, WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTER AT 150NM INLAND.
PERIPHERAL BANDS CURRENTLY AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN PROVINCES OF
NAMPULA AND CABO DELGADO IN MOZAMBIQUE. WINDS ARE DECREASING AND
ESTIMATED AT 25KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS AND THEN EASTWARDS, PASSING OVER SOUTHERN
MALAWI OVERNIGHT. AN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL DRIVEN BY THIS RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, JUDE SHOULD CROSS THE CHANNEL AND LAND OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA LATE ON FRIDAY. AN EXIT TO THE
EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE DAY. THERE ARE FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCES ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER A DISPERSION
IS TO BE NOTED IN TERMS OF TIMING. TO NAME BUT TWO, GFS IS MUCH
FASTER THAN IFS ON THE EXIT AND SEA TRANSIT OVER THE CHANNEL. THE
RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS,
APPROACHING AIFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 25KT AS IT PASSES
OVER LAND. THEN, ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, BENEFITING
FROM FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW,
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL), IT COULD INTENSIFY
AGAIN TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AGAIN. AFTER A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OVER MADAGASCAR, IT COULD
INTENSIFY AGAIN TO THE EAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- SOUTHERN TANZANIA, NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO AND NAMPULA
PROVINCES): HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM IN 24H). IMPROVEMENT AT THE END OF
THE DAY.
- MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIA, NIASSA AND TETE) AND SOUTHERN
MALAWI: HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H) BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
EVENING.
- MOZAMBIQUE (MANICA AND SOFALA PROVINCES): HEAVY RAINS (200-250MM IN
48H) FROM WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.