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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-3-11 17:30 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 79.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 79.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.2S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.5S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.3S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.3S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.0S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.7S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 78.5E.
11MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z AND 120900Z.
//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 110900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR
- 007//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 20.3S 79.1E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 880 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY
- ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
- 24S (IVONE). STRONG (30+ KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
- IS CAUSING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO TILT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
- BASED ON NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LLCC TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP
- CONVECTION. DRY AIR ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS
- MIXING INTO THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LAYER, DETERIORATING THE CORE OF
- THE TC. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG, WITH THE TAIL END OF THE JET
- TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DVORAK AGENCY FIXES, AS WELL AS THE 110305Z
- METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A BAND OF 40 KTS WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
- SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WIND FIELD.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
- THE SOUTH
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 110354Z
- CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 110600Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 110500Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 110116Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 110600Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 30+ KTS
- SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
- WESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR TO THE SOUTH. AS
- THE RIDGE BUILDS AND MOVES EASTWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
- FOLLOW ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY AND BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND
- TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR BY TAU
- 72 AND BECOME POSITIONED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.
- AFTER THAT, TC 24S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
- DISSIPATE BY TAU 96, JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM. TC
- IVONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
- UNDER THE IMPACTS OF MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SEA
- SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) WILL REMAIN WARM (26-27 C), OFFSET BY THE
- WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STRONG VWS AND CONTINUOUS DRY AIR
- ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 48, TC 24S WILL ENTER AN AREA OF WEAKER VWS,
- OFFSET HOWEVER BY COOLING SST, LEADING TO SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
- SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 72, THE VWS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN, WHICH
- COMBINED WITH SST DROPPING BELOW 25 C WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF
- TC 24S, AS IT ALSO APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
- AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS MATCHING IN REGARD TO THE STEERING MECHANISM
- AND THE RECURVING MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72
- HOWEVER, IS OVER 230 NM, LEADING TO A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK
- ASSESSMENT. TWO MAJOR OUTLIERS ARE ECMWF AND NAVGEM ON EACH SIDE OF
- THE LONGITUDINAL SPECTRUM. EXCLUDING THE TWO MODELS FROM TRACK
- GUIDANCE NARROWS DOWN THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 130 NM AND JTWC
- FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THAT
- SPREAD. LONG TERM TRACK IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AS
- THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS JUST ABOVE 100 NM AT TAU 96. INTENSITY
- FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
- PERIOD, DRIVEN BY A DIFFERING TIMELINE OF DISSIPATION, AMONG THE
- CONSENSUS MODEL MEMBERS. COAMPS-TC AND HAFS MAINTAIN 45-55
- INTENSITY THROUGHOUT TAU 84 AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU
- 120, WHILE GFS INDICATES WEAKENING TO 35 KTS AS SOON AS TAU
- 36.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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