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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-9 16:25 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 84.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.2S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.8S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.0S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.0S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.0S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 84.0E.
09MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1558
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z
IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
25S (JUDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 090900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE)
- WARNING NR 003//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 15.2S 84.1E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1558 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 10 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
- 12 HOURS AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
- (MSI), WHICH REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A
- PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
- 090344Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER WITH GALE-FORCE
- WINDS (35-40 KNOTS) PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
- SEMICIRCLES WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
- WEAKER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 090319Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
- IMAGE DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
- ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENT GALE-FORCE WINDS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
- DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM,
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
- AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND RECENT ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL
- INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
- PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT ASCAT DATA.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
- TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 090600Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 090600Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 090600Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 0-5 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
- SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
- OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY
- INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 DUE TO THE ROBUST
- POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST,
- WARM SST VALUES (27-28C), AND LOW-MODERATE (5-20 KNOTS) VWS. AFTER
- TAU 24, TC 24S WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE NORTHERN
- PERIPHERY OF A SECONDARY STR EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH.
- SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
- SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST, WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
- UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) VWS OVER THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU
- 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH DISSIPATION
- FORECAST BY TAU 120 AS EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENVELOPS THE SYSTEM.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
- THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 190NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. AFTER
- TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH A 290NM CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD AT TAU 120. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND EPS
- ENSEMBLES GENERALLY REVEAL A SIMILAR SPREAD SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK
- FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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