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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-9 05:20 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080351ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 45.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 45.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.8S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.0S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.0S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.1S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.3S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.0S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.3S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 45.1E.
08MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
285 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 080400).//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 082100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE)
- WARNING NR 001//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 45.6E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 285 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE 25S WITH PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
- PORTION OF A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
- (LLCC). AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM
- HAS RAPIDLY IMPROVED IN APPEARANCE AS THE WARM WATERS WITHIN THE
- MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AID IN DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
- INDICATES THAT 25S IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
- CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10
- KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
- TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
- BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS
- IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
- ALL AGREEING ON A T2.5 ESTIMATE.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
- RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
- MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
- WESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48.
- LANDFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 36, ABOUT 30 NM
- SOUTH OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER TAU 48, THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
- WILL WEAKEN AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WILL BUILD IN AND
- TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL RIDE
- ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ACCELERATE TOWARD
- SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 25S IS FORECAST TO
- RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36, TO A PEAK OF AROUND 80 KTS, AS
- THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE (VERY WARM SST, LOW SHEAR,
- AND STRONG OUTFLOW). ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, TERRAIN
- INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE VORTEX TO QUICKLY ERODE. THERE IS A
- POSSIBILITY THAT 25S WILL WEAKEN BELOW THE 35 KNOT THRESHOLD
- BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72. HOWEVER, ONCE THE VORTEX RE-EMERGES WITHIN
- THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL ENSUE.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT
- REGARDING THE TRACK OF 25S. NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL, THERE IS A
- 67 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
- MEAN ARE THE NORTHERNMOST MEMBERS WHILE NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERNMOST
- MEMBER. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THEN OPENS UP TO 110 NM AT TAU 72, WITH
- ECMWF TAKING THE WIDEST TURN, AND GFS THE SHARPEST TURN, AS THE
- STEERING PATTERN TRANSITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
- INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF LAND INTERACTION. THE JTWC
- TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND
- LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
- THROUGH TAU 36, WITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 70 TO 80 KTS.
- HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTERWARD DUE TO THE VARYING TIMELINES
- FOR LAND INTERACTION. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
- ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW
- CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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