莫桑比克海峡强热带风暴第12号“祖德”(25S.Jude) - 出海再次发展

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 080050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12

2.A POSITION 2025/03/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 49.0 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/08 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/09 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/10 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 130 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
SINCE THE SYSTEM ENTERED MADAGASCAR, BUT CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT.
THE 1750Z ASCAT PASS POSITIONED THE CENTER STILL OFF MADAGASCAR AND
MEASURED WINDS OF 30KT OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION BURST. THEN THE GCOM
AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2217Z LOCATED THE CENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE LAND NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, JUSTIFYING A STRONG ACCELERATION OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST RECENT SYNOP FOR THE
MALAGASY AREAS CONCERNED DO NOT MEASURE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25KT, BUT
WINDS OF 30KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SEA NEAR THE COASTS. THE SYSTEM
IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS AN OVERLAND DEPRESSION, WITH MAXIMUM MEAN
WINDS OF 30KT.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE SYSTEM REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW
DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASIN.
THE RIDGE'S STEERING FLOW HAS ENABLED A GOOD WESTWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOW WELL CENTERED ON LAND TO THE NORTH OF
MADAGASCAR. WITH THE HELP OF A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORMING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON SATURDAY MORNING A LITTLE NORTH OF ANALALAVA. BUT THE
PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT RELIEF IN THIS AREA OF MADAGASCAR COULD
TEMPORARILY LOCATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO LEEWARD OF THIS RELIEF.
KEEPING A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS
SOUTH OF MAYOTTE AND THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO ON SUNDAY. WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING LESS RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS, THE MAIN FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, IMPOSING A TRACK THAT WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND
FROM MOZAMBIQUE FROM MONDAY ON NAMPULA PROVINCE. THIS LANDFALLING
SCENARIO IS NOW BEING MONITORED BY THE RSMC, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THESE TIMES. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER
MOZAMBIQUE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH A PENETRATION TO BE
DETERMINED, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SEA ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A
DECREASE IN INTENSITY SINCE ITS LANDING. THE OUTFLOWING VORTEX WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO RECONSTITUTE ITSELF, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE GOOD AND REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. WITH A FASTER
DISPLACEMENT AND A MORE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD BEFORE
LANDFALL. THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD ALSO BE HAMPERED BY FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY LINKED TO CHANGES IN INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEREFORE REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY,
BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES OVER THE COUNTRY, WHILE
MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 150-200M ON THE COAST,
POSSIBLY EVEN 250MM TOWARDS VOHEMAR) VERY LIKELY FROM FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY; THESE RAINS MAY BE VERY HEAVY ON SOME RELIEFS (200-250MM IN
24H).
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTS OF THE PROVINCES OF
ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA DURING THE NIGHT, THEN IMPROVING ON
SATURDAY.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4M EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150 MM IN 24HRS ON THE COAST) AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE PROVINCE'S COAST FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) VERY LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- START OF HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H) POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY AND STORM
FORCE THEN HURRICANE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, AT LANDFALL.
- WAVES OF 4 METERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY ON THE COAST
OF NAMPULA PROVINCE, INCREASING TO 6 METERS IN THE MORNING OF MONDAY.
A SURGE OF 50CM IS EXPECTED NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE.=

ygsj24

WTXS22 PGTW 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072030Z MAR 25//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 072030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 50.5E TO 15.9S 41.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 49.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 26
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.1S 51.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 49.3E, APPROXIMATELY 369 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COMOROS, AFRICA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN. A
PARTIAL 072304Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS SWATH OF 30 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
OFFSET DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTING WITH WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 86.4E//
NNNN

---

ABIO10 PGTW 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/080400Z-090400ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072330ZMAR2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080351ZMAR2025//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.1S 51.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 49.3E, APPROXIMATELY 369 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COMOROS, AFRICA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN.
A PARTIAL 072304Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS SWATH OF 30 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
OFFSET DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTING WITH WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 080400) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.5S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLANDS.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
FRAGMENTED BUT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER 071759Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS REVEALED A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN ISOLATED SWATH OF 30 KTS WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF
ENSEMBLE CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH
NNNN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 080741
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/12/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12

2.A POSITION 2025/03/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 47.6 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 470 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/08 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/09 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/09 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, SYSTEM 12 HAS COMPLETED ITS CROSSING OF THE
NORTH OF MADAGASCAR AND EMERGED OVER SEA SOUTH-WEST OF NOSY BE, AS
SHOWN BY SATELLITE IMAGES, MICROWAVES, NOTABLY THE 0301Z GMI, AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM MADAGASCAR. IT IS CURRENTLY BEING ANALYZED AS A
30KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE SYSTEM REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE EASTERLY FLOW
GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. KEEPING A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS SOUTH OF
MAYOTTE OVERNIGHT, THEN OFF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO ON SUNDAY, BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING OVER NAMPULA
PROVINCE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE LANDFALL. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
OVER THE PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIA BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE CHANNEL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTHEAST.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST: IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
(EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAK SOUTHERLY
SHEAR), SYSTEM 12 SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AND THEN RAPIDLY BETWEEN
NOW AND LANDFALL. IT COULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
BY MONDAY. IT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER MOZAMBIQUE. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER SEA.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200M ON THE HIGHER GROUNDS)

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150 MM IN 24HRS) ON THE COAST UP TO MONDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE ON THE COASTLINE UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES EXPECTED UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) POSSIBLE UP TO MONDAY

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE:
- CONDITIONS WORSENING ON SUNDAY
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H)
- GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M. 50CM TO 1M STORM SURGE NEAR THE LANDFALL.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 081246
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/12/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12

2.A POSITION 2025/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 46.8 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/09 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 130

36H: 2025/03/10 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 240

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED NEAR THE
CENTER. THE ASCAT AND AMSR2 PASSES HAVE HELPED TO RELOCATE THE CENTER
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THE ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS DO NOT EXCEED 30KT. THE ANALYSIS IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30KT.


IN THE SHORT TERM, THE SYSTEM REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE EASTERLY FLOW
GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. KEEPING A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS SOUTH OF
MAYOTTE AND THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NAMPULA PROVINCE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
RATHER IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LANDFALL.
IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER THE PROVINCE OF
ZAMBEZIA BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE CHANNEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTHEAST.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST: IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
(EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAK SOUTHERLY
SHEAR), SYSTEM 12 SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AND THEN RAPIDLY BETWEEN
NOW AND LANDFALL. IT COULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
BY MONDAY. IT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER MOZAMBIQUE. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER SEA.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200M ON THE HIGHER GROUNDS)

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150 MM IN 24HRS) ON THE COAST UP TO MONDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE ON THE COASTLINE UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES EXPECTED UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) POSSIBLE UP TO MONDAY

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- CONDITIONS WORSENING ON SUNDAY
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H, 300MM LOCALLY)
- GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M. 50CM TO 1M STORM SURGE NEAR THE LANDFALL.=

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 081520

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (NW OF MADAGASCAR)

B. 08/1430Z

C. 14.24S

D. 46.45E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   08/1028Z  14.23S  46.53E  AMS2


   LINDGREN

---

TXXS27 KNES 081254
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99S)

B.  08/1115Z

C.  14.4S

D.  46.8E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T1.5/2.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...BERTALAN

=

Leonardo

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 081918
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 45.6 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 305 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 325 SW: 165 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CENTER, IMPROVING THE BANDED PATTERN. AN ANALYSIS
IN PT AT 2.5 CAN BE MADE AND WITH THIS CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT TREND,
IT IS POSSIBLE TO MOVE TO 2.5+, JUSTIFYING THE NAMING. THE LATEST
MICROWAVE DATA EFFECTIVELY SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED WINDING, VALIDATING
THIS ANALYSIS. THE MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS NAMED SYSTEM
12-20242025 AT 17UTC AFTER JUDE. JUDE IS THEREFORE A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35KT.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE SYSTEM REMAINS
SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. KEEPING A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEREFORE PASS OFF THE SOUTH OF MAYOTTE AND THE COMOROS
ARCHIPELAGO OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NAMPULA PROVINCE
LATE ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION AND TIMING. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER THE MOZAMBICAN PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIA BEFORE
EMERGING OVER THE CHANNEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTHEAST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY SHEAR), JUDE SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY (A LITTLE MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) BETWEEN NOW AND ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEREFORE HIT THE MOZAMBICAN COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MONDAY.
IT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. A FURTHER
REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN IT RE-EMERGES AT SEA, DUE TO
GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200M ON THE HIGHER GROUNDS)
GRADUALLY FADING

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150 MM IN 24HRS) ON THE COAST UP TO MONDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE ON THE COASTLINE UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES EXPECTED UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) POSSIBLE UP TO MONDAY

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- CONDITIONS WORSENING ON SUNDAY
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H, 300MM LOCALLY)
- GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M. 50CM TO 1M STORM SURGE NEAR THE LANDFALL.=

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080351ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 45.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 45.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 14.8S 43.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 15.0S 42.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 15.0S 40.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 15.1S 39.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 16.3S 37.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 18.0S 37.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 20.3S 39.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 45.1E.
08MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
285 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 080400).//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 082100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE)
   
4. WARNING NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 45.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 285 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 25S WITH PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
    
19. PORTION OF A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
20. (LLCC). AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM
    
21. HAS RAPIDLY IMPROVED IN APPEARANCE AS THE WARM WATERS WITHIN THE
    
22. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AID IN DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    
23. INDICATES THAT 25S IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    
24. CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10
    
25. KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
    
26. TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
27. BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS
    
28. IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
    
29. ALL AGREEING ON A T2.5 ESTIMATE.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
34. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
39.    FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
40. 
    
41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
42.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
43.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
44.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
45. 
    
46. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
47.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
48.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
50. 
    
51. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
52. 
    
53. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
54. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
55. 
    
56. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
57. WESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48.
    
58. LANDFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 36, ABOUT 30 NM
    
59. SOUTH OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER TAU 48, THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
    
60. WILL WEAKEN AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WILL BUILD IN AND
    
61. TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL RIDE
    
62. ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ACCELERATE TOWARD
    
63. SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 25S IS FORECAST TO
    
64. RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36, TO A PEAK OF AROUND 80 KTS, AS
    
65. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE (VERY WARM SST, LOW SHEAR,
    
66. AND STRONG OUTFLOW). ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, TERRAIN
    
67. INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE VORTEX TO QUICKLY ERODE. THERE IS A
    
68. POSSIBILITY THAT 25S WILL WEAKEN BELOW THE 35 KNOT THRESHOLD
    
69. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72. HOWEVER, ONCE THE VORTEX RE-EMERGES WITHIN
    
70. THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL ENSUE.
    
71. 
    
72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT
    
73. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 25S. NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL, THERE IS A
    
74. 67 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
    
75. MEAN ARE THE NORTHERNMOST MEMBERS WHILE NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERNMOST
    
76. MEMBER. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THEN OPENS UP TO 110 NM AT TAU 72, WITH
    
77. ECMWF TAKING THE WIDEST TURN, AND GFS THE SHARPEST TURN, AS THE
    
78. STEERING PATTERN TRANSITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
    
79. INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF LAND INTERACTION. THE JTWC
    
80. TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND
    
81. LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
82. THROUGH TAU 36, WITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 70 TO 80 KTS.
    
83. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTERWARD DUE TO THE VARYING TIMELINES
    
84. FOR LAND INTERACTION. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
85. ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW
    
86. CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
91.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
93. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 090100
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 44.7 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/10 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED CLOSE TO
THE CENTER, WITH A BANDED PATTERN THAT CAN GIVE A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
T OF 3.0-. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO VERY COLD FAR FROM THE SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT, NOW REACHING THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE
ASCAT PASS OF 1910UTC SHOWS VALUES OF UP TO 39KT, WITH CIRCULATION
CONCENTRATED AT THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA, JUDE IS MAINTAINED
AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM, WITH 10-MIN WINDS OF 40KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK, WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOVEMENT AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION. IN THE SHORT TERM,
THE SYSTEM REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAINTAINING A
GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AWAY TO THE SOUTH OFF
MAYOTTE AND THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY OVER
THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA, CLOSE TO ILHA DE MOCAMBIQUE, WITH A SLIGHT
DELAY OF ALMOST 3 HOURS COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS BROADLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION AND
TIMING. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER THE
MOZAMBICAN PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIA BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE CHANNEL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTHEAST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY SHEAR), JUDE SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY (A LITTLE MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) BETWEEN NOW AND ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEREFORE HIT THE MOZAMBICAN COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MONDAY.
IT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. A FURTHER
REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN IT RE-EMERGES AT SEA, DUE TO
GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200M ON THE HIGHER GROUNDS)
GRADUALLY FADING

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150 MM IN 24HRS) ON THE COAST UP TO MONDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE ON THE COASTLINE UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES EXPECTED UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.

MAYOTTE/COMOROS:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) LIKELY UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- CURRENT DETERIORATION AHEAD OF SYSTEM, CAUSING HEAVY RAIN
(100-200MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY 300MM).
- GALE FORCE WINDS THEN STORMS VERY LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO THE IMPACT ZONE.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M. 50CM TO 1M SURGE NEAR LANDFALL.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：张 玲  2025 年 03 月 09 日 10 时
“祖德”10日将登陆并严重影响莫桑比克

时       间：9日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬14.6度、东经44.7度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：994百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克楠普拉省莫任夸尔偏东方向约435公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”由7级加强到8级

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度将快速增强，预计10日白天（北京时）将在莫桑比克北部沿海登陆，登陆后强度逐渐减弱。

风雨影响：受“祖德”影响，预计9日白天至10日夜间，马达加斯加北部和西部、莫桑比克中东部等地将有大到暴雨，局地大暴雨，累计降水量可达70~150毫米，局部地区降水量甚至超过200毫米；马达加斯加西部沿海、莫桑比克中北部沿海、莫桑比克海峡将有8~10级大风，“祖德”中心经过的附近海域和地区风力可达11~13级、阵风14~15级。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月09日08时00分）


图3 南印度洋热带风暴“祖德”未来120小时路径概率预报图