罗德里格斯岛以东强热带风暴第13号“伊沃娜”(23U/24S.Ivone) - 西南移动

ygsj24

WTXS21 PGTW 072330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
285 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 88.0E TO 22.5S 78.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 072030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 86.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.5S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
FRAGMENTED BUT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER 071759Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS REVEALED A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN ISOLATED SWATH OF 30 KTS WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF
ENSEMBLE CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082330Z.//
NNNN

---

ABIO10 PGTW 072300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/072300Z-081800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072330ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.5S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
FRAGMENTED BUT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER 071759Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS REVEALED A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN ISOLATED SWATH OF 30 KTS WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF
ENSEMBLE CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072330) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 52.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 51.8E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION AND
DENSE DEEP CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. A 071752Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS AND ISOLATED
SWATH OF 30 KTS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C),
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THE 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 080800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/13/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13

2.A POSITION 2025/03/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 84.7 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 600 SW: 575 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/08 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 565 SW: 575 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/09 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 585 SW: 555 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/09 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 595 SW: 390 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 405 SW: 195 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 610 SW: 415 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 455 SW: 250 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 630 SW: 445 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 65

72H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 665 SW: 630 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SW: 380 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 575 SW: 555 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, SYSTEM 13-20242025 HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE BASIN. YESTERDAY'S AND THIS MORNING'S
ASCAT PASSES SHOW THAT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL POORLY
DEFINED, WITH A VERY ELONGATED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REACHING 35 TO 40KT. THE SYSTEM IS
THEREFORE ANALYZED AS A 40KT ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER AT 06Z.

THE SYSTEM 13 IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD FAVOR A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE SYSTEM'S
COURSE UNTIL MID-WEEK. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, 13-20242025 SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWARDS, ROUNDING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 13 HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAK SHEAR AND STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
ITS LARGE CORE SHOULD LIMIT ITS RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. IT MAY REACH THE
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEN SLOWLY FILL UP DURING NEXT WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072321ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 11.9S 84.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 84.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 13.2S 83.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 15.0S 82.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 16.8S 82.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 18.3S 81.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 19.6S 79.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 19.9S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 21.6S 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 84.4E.
08MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
777 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072330).//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 080900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR)
   
4. WARNING NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.9S 84.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 777 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD,
    
18. PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH TWO DISCRETE AREAS OF
    
19. DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, A
    
20. 080313Z ASCAT-C IMAGE INDICATES EXTENSIVE 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
    
21. SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A SMALLER SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS
    
22. DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
23. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-C IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    
24. FAVORABLE, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    
25. AND WARM SST VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED
    
26. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-C DATA.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
    
31. TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
35.    FMEE: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
36.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 24 KTS AT 080600Z
    
37. 
    
38. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
39.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
40.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
41.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
42. 
    
43. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
44.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
45.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
46.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
47. 
    
48. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
49. 
    
50. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
51. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
52. 
    
53. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
54. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
    
55. OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY
    
56. INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS DURING THIS TWO-DAY PERIOD
    
57. DUE TO ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND
    
58. SOUTHEAST, WARM SST VALUES (27-29C), AND LOW-MODERATE (5-20 KNOTS)
    
59. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
    
60. SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST, WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
    
61. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) VWS OVER THE SYSTEM.
    
62. ADDITIONALLY, EXTENSIVE DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM RESULTING
    
63. IN GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
64. 
    
65. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
66. THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 60NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU
    
67. 72, THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH A 265NM CROSS-TRACK
    
68. SPREAD AT TAU 120. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND EPS
    
69. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY REVEAL A SIMILAR SPREAD, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
    
70. OF A 40-50 KNOT PEAK INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48.   
    
71. 
    
72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
73.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
74.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
75.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
76.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
77. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：吕心艳  签发：张 玲  2025 年 03 月 08 日 18 时
南印度洋热带风暴生成

时       间：8日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

中心位置：南纬11.5度、东经84.7度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：1000百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约3060公里的洋面上

变化过程：热带风暴生成并加强到8级

预报结论：热带风暴将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月08日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 081307
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/13/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13

2.A POSITION 2025/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 84.5 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 600 SW: 575 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 600 SW: 470 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95

24H: 2025/03/09 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 585 SW: 500 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/10 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 585 SW: 470 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 120

48H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 610 SW: 480 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 415 SW: 295 NW: 120

60H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 630 SW: 470 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 415 SW: 295 NW: 150

72H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 640 SW: 530 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SW: 380 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SW: 425 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM 13-20242025 CONTINUED TO DEVELOP,
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETTING CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE 1000Z
SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE PASS AND THE 1115Z GMI PASS CONFIRM A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE, WITH STRONGER SIGNS OF
CURVATURE. SYSTEM 13 IS THEREFORE CLOSE TO BEING ANALYZED AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THE ANALYZED INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
THE TIME BEING.

THE SYSTEM 13 IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD FAVOR A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE SYSTEM'S
COURSE UNTIL MID-WEEK. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, 13-20242025 SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWARDS, ROUNDING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 13 HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAK SHEAR AND STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
ITS LARGE CORE SHOULD LIMIT ITS RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. IT MAY REACH THE
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEN SLOWLY FILL UP DURING NEXT WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

Leonardo

TPXS10 PGTW 081518

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (W OF COCOS ISLANDS)

B. 08/1430Z

C. 13.03S

D. 84.82E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LINDGREN

---

TXXS28 KNES 081257
TCSSIO

A.  24S (NONAME)

B.  08/1115Z

C.  12.2S

D.  85.3E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T1.5/1.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT
CLEAR CUT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...BERTALAN

=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 081849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 600 SW: 575 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SW: 465 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/09 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 585 SW: 480 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 620 SW: 470 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 390 SW: 295 NW: 95

48H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 610 SW: 510 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 120

60H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 490 SW: 390 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 455 SW: 360 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 335 SW: 325 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

SYSTEM 13-20242025 HAS BEEN NAMED AT 15UTC BY THE MAURITIUS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. IT IS NOW MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IVONE. OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED VERY COLD, MOVING A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST, CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THE LAST ASCAT PASS WAS
PARTIAL, BUT WITH WINDS OF 45KT AND A WIDE CIRCULATION. THIS
CIRCULATION IS STILL WIDE, AND IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA, IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MORE
CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN OR WESTERN SECTOR. BY OPTING FOR A MORE
WESTERLY LOCALIZATION, A 3.0+ DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN BE MADE, STILL
LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS A LITTLE BELOW THE MAXIMUM ASCAT WIND VALUES
OF 1455UTC BY 45KT. IVONE REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST: IVONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING A CHANGE IN TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST
UNTIL MID-WEEK. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
HEADING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IVONE HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAK SHEAR AND STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, ITS LARGE CORE SHOULD LIMIT ITS RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. IT
COULD REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. FROM MONDAY, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS OCCUR LATER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SLOWLY FILL IN OVER
THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT COULD STILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS IN ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT AS IT DESCENDS
SOUTHWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 83.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 83.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 15.1S 83.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 17.0S 82.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 18.7S 81.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 19.5S 80.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 19.4S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 20.5S 70.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 24.7S 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 83.7E.
08MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
763 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 082100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR)
   
4. WARNING NR 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.1S 83.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 763 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 24S WITH A MORE ORGANIZED, BUT STILL BROAD, WIND FIELD AND
    
19. CENTRALIZED CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
    
21. 24S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD
    
22. OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA
    
23. SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
24. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
25. OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
    
26. DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
27. ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL 081550Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALED A LARGE AREA
    
28. OF 35 KTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
33. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
37.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
38.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 34 KTS AT 081900Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 081800Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 081800Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
45.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
47.    OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN
    
48. PORTION OF THE VORTEX.
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
61. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
    
62. TAU 48. NEAR TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
    
63. SYSTEM, DRIVING IT WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE
    
64. SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
    
65. TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING
    
66. INTENSITY, TC 24S IS FORECAST TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
    
67. 36. DRY AIR WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT
    
68. FOR THE LIMITED INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. NEAR TAU 48,
    
69. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND WILL
    
70. PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL CAUSE 24S
    
71. TO WEAKEN, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 120.
    
72. 
    
73. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
74. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 24S WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING CROSS-TRACK
    
75. SPREAD TO 225 NM AT TAU 120 AND NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE JTWC
    
76. TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND
    
77. MEDIUM THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH
    
78. A PRIMARY OUTLIER BEING COAMPS-TC, WHICH DOES NOT CALL FOR A
    
79. WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 48. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE SHOWS
    
80. WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48, WITH HAFS-A BEING THE QUICKEST TO DISSIPATE
    
81. THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
    
82. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
86.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
87.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
88.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
89. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 090024
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/13/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (IVONE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 84.0 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 610 SW: 510 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SW: 350 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 535 SW: 405 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 35

24H: 2025/03/10 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 510 SW: 405 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 455 SW: 405 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 425 SW: 405 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 400 SW: 405 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 350 SW: 405 NW: 120

120H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 405 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE BANDED CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED VERY
COLD, BUT WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. PARTIAL
ASCAT PASSES FROM 1547UTC STILL SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SOME
MAXIMUM VALUES OF 45KT, WHICH SHOULD BE MORE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR. GCOM-W MICROWAVE DATA FROM 1942UTC CONFIRMS THIS BROAD
CIRCULATION, WITH THE CENTER LOCATED MORE IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN BE INCREASED TO 3.5-, VALIDATING THE 45KT WINDS
MEASURED. IVONE REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST: IVONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING A CHANGE IN TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST
UNTIL MID-WEEK. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, BYPASSING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-WEST AND THEN
HEADING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARDS.

NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY FORECAST, IVONE HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAK SHEAR AND STRONG OCEAN
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, ITS LARGE CORE SHOULD LIMIT ITS RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT. IT COULD REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS
AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS OCCUR LATER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SLOWLY
FILL IN OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT COULD STILL
GENERATE STRONG WINDS IN ITS SOUTHERN PART DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT
AS IT DESCENDS SOUTHWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：张 玲  2025 年 03 月 09 日 10 时
“伊沃娜”向南偏西方向移动

时       间：9日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“伊沃娜”，IVONE

中心位置：南纬13.8度、东经84.0度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：995百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约2900公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“伊沃娜”由8级加强到9级

预报结论：“伊沃娜”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月09日08时00分）