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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-9 05:40 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 83.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 83.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.1S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.0S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.7S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.5S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.4S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.5S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.7S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 83.7E.
08MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
763 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 082100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR)
- WARNING NR 002//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 13.1S 83.9E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 763 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE 24S WITH A MORE ORGANIZED, BUT STILL BROAD, WIND FIELD AND
- CENTRALIZED CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
- 24S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD
- OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA
- SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
- OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
- DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL 081550Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALED A LARGE AREA
- OF 35 KTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
- RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 34 KTS AT 081900Z
- CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 081800Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 081800Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN
- PORTION OF THE VORTEX.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
- SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
- TAU 48. NEAR TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
- SYSTEM, DRIVING IT WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE
- SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
- TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING
- INTENSITY, TC 24S IS FORECAST TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
- 36. DRY AIR WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT
- FOR THE LIMITED INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. NEAR TAU 48,
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND WILL
- PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL CAUSE 24S
- TO WEAKEN, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 120.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
- REGARDING THE TRACK OF 24S WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD TO 225 NM AT TAU 120 AND NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE JTWC
- TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND
- MEDIUM THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH
- A PRIMARY OUTLIER BEING COAMPS-TC, WHICH DOES NOT CALL FOR A
- WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 48. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE SHOWS
- WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48, WITH HAFS-A BEING THE QUICKEST TO DISSIPATE
- THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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