莫桑比克海峡强热带风暴第12号“祖德”(25S.Jude) - 出海再次发展

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实时云图

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编扰资讯

Zone of Disturbed Weather 12-20242025 :
Information at 10UTC :
Estimated position : 12.2S / 57.5E
Movement : West-South-West, 12 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 25 kt
Estimated central pressure : 1006 hPa

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 061351
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/12/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2025/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 57.3 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/07 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2025/03/07 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 100

36H: 2025/03/08 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75

48H: 2025/03/08 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120

60H: 2025/03/09 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130

72H: 2025/03/09 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM 12-20242025 IS SHOWING CONVECTION THAT IS STILL
RELATIVELY UNSTRUCTURED, LOCATED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS MORNING'S ASCAT SWATH AT 0434Z SHOWS A STILL
ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED CENTER, LACKING CONVERGENCE IN ITS
EQUATORIAL PART. WINDS MEASURED BY THIS ASCAT DO NOT EXCEED 31KT
LOCALLY UNDER SOME CONVECTION BURSTS. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS
GIVES A CI OF 1.5, WITH MAXIMUM MEAN WINDS OF 25KT, CLASSIFYING THE
SYSTEM AS A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER.

CONCERNING THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, IT IS INITIALLY SUBJECT TO THE
EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE POWERFUL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
INDIAN OCEAN BASIN. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARDS AT A SPEED OF
10-15KT ON THURSDAY, THEN SOUTH-WESTWARDS ON FRIDAY, AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARDS. IT SHOULD THEREFORE LAND IN MADAGASCAR ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, ON THE EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE, NEAR
SAMBAVA. IT SHOULD RE-EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SATURDAY,
BUT ITS PRECISE LOCATION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT PRESENT, AS
ITS PATH COULD BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE MALAGASY RELIEF. ON
SATURDAY, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CHANNEL, AND ITS DIRECTING FLOW FORCES THE SYSTEM TO KEEP HEADING
WEST. ON SUNDAY, IT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OFFSHORE OF MAYOTTE AND THE
COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. FROM MONDAY, IT WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA AND THE STRENGTHENING OF
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL TO TAKE A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH IT
SHOULD APPROACH ON TUESDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WITH GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STILL LACKING,
ESPECIALLY ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
OVER THE COMING HOURS, HOWEVER, AND THE SYSTEM COULD LAND AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM OVER MADAGASCAR. ITS INTENSITY WILL THEN
INEVITABLY DIMINISH AS IT PASSES OVER LAND, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
EMERGE IN THE CHANNEL AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN, STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN
THE CHANNEL, AND COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE NEXT TUESDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 150-200M ON THE COAST) VERY
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY OVER THE PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND
TOAMASINA; THESE RAINS MAY BE VERY HEAVY ON SOME RELIEFS (200-250MM
IN 24H).
- GALE FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY ON FRIDAY OVER THE PROVINCES OF
ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4M EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE PROVINCES OF
ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAINS (50-100MM IN 24H) LIKELY BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.=

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99S INVEST 250306 1200 12.8S 56.8E SHEM 15 1009

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/061800Z-
071800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S
87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 472 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LLCC. A 061539Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS THE BROAD NATURE OF
98S WITH WEAK OVERALL WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM SITTING UNDER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS, AND VERY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THIS IS OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). DESPITE THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
AND CONSISTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF 98S OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8S
56.8E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
ROTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, RELATIVELY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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WTIO30 FMEE 070650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/12/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2025/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 54.9 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/07 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/08 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/09 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/09 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

SINCE THE LAST MONITORING BULLETIN DATED YESTERDAY 12UTC, CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF DISTURBED ZONE
12-20242025. IT HAS FLUCTUATED CONSIDERABLY, WITH FRACTIONAL
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES AND ASCAT DATA
FROM 1811UTC SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL WIDE, WITH
WINDS OF AROUND 20/25KT, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. THE SYSTEM IS
CONSOLIDATING VERY SLOWLY, REMAINING A DISTURBED ZONE. THE LOCATION
IS STILL RATHER IMPRECISE, BUT THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES HELP TO
PINPOINT IT, WITH A MOVEMENT THAT HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS, THE SYSTEM REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE
EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BASIN. ACCELERATING, THIS MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO LAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA, NEAR SAMBAVALE, DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH A NEW RIDGE FORMING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL AND OVER
AFRICA, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY A LITTLE NORTH OF ANALALAVA, KEEPING A
GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK. IT SHOULD THEREFORE PASS SOUTH OF MAYOTTE
AND THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO ON SUNDAY. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES, THE
MAIN FLOW SHOULD IMPOSE A MORE SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK, TAKING THE
SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON TUESDAY, AT A DISTANCE THAT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. SOME FORECASTS EVEN SUGGEST A LANDFALL OVER
MOZAMBIQUE ON MONDAY WITHOUT TAKING A SOUTHEASTERLY COURSE, A
SCENARIO WHICH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING FOLLOWED BY RSMC. THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THESE TIMES, SO WE MUST REMAIN CAUTIOUS.

AS REGARDS THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS
BENEFITING FROM MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES MADAGASCAR, A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT IS STRUGGLING TO CONCENTRATE, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AND A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES MADAGASCAR, AND COULD LAND AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM OVER MADAGASCAR. THE OUTFLOWING VORTEX WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO BUILD UP AGAIN, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
GOOD AND REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THIS INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE MORE MARKED FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO
REACH CYCLONE STATUS, OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE EVENT OF A
LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST, DUE TO A MORE RAPID LANDFALL, A
SCENARIO WHICH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED BY THE RSMC.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 150-200M ON THE COAST) VERY
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY OVER THE PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND
TOAMASINA; THESE RAINS MAY BE VERY HEAVY ON SOME RELIEFS (200-250MM
IN 24H).
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY OVER
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4M EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE PROVINCES OF
ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) VERY LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING.

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 071229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/12/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2025/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 52.3 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/08 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2025/03/08 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 100

36H: 2025/03/09 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75

48H: 2025/03/09 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/10 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 165

120H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE, WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF SYSTEM
12-20242025. NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
COOLED OVER THE PAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COOLED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS, POSSIBLY
INDICATING A TIGHTENING OF THE FLOW IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SECTOR, BUT
THE GCOM-W PASS OF 0948UTC DOES NOT SHOW A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS MICROWAVE DATA.
CONSIDERING THIS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CLOUDY PATTERN, WE CAN
CLASSIFY SYSTEM 12-20242025 AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, WITH WINDS
STILL ESTIMATED AT AROUND 25KT, BUT NOT YET INTENSIFYING.

SOME CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS, AT LEAST OVER THE LONG
TERM. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE SYSTEM REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BASIN. ACCELERATING, THIS MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT IN THE DIRECTION OF
MADAGASCAR, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO LAND ON THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE, NEAR SAMBAVALE, DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY
NIGHT, 3 HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH A NEW RIDGE
FORMING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL AND OVER AFRICA, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF ANALALAVA, BUT THE PRESENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF IN THIS AREA OF MADAGASCAR COULD TEMPORARILY
LOCATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO LEEWARD OF THIS RELIEF. KEEPING A
GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS SOUTH OF
MAYOTTE AND THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO ON SUNDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
A LITTLE FASTER AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING LESS RAPIDLY
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, THE MAIN FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, IMPOSING A TRACK THAT WILL
BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE FROM MONDAY ON NAMPULA
PROVINCE. THIS LANDFALLING SCENARIO IS NOW BEING MONITORED BY THE
RSMC, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THESE
TIMES. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER MOZAMBIQUE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, WITH A PENETRATION TO BE DETERMINED, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
SEA ON WEDNESDAY.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS
BENEFITING FROM MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE SHEAR
AS IT APPROACHES MADAGASCAR, A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS
STRUGGLING TO CONCENTRATE, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AND A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES MADAGASCAR, AND COULD LAND AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM OVER MADAGASCAR, OR WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS
THAT DO NOT JUSTIFY THE NAMING. THE OUTFLOWING VORTEX WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECONSTITUTE ITSELF, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD
AND REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. WITH A FASTER DISPLACEMENT
AND A MORE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE ABLE
TO REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS
INTENSIFICATION COULD ALSO BE HAMPERED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
LINKED TO CHANGES IN INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY, BEFORE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES OVER THE COUNTRY, WHILE MAINTAINING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 150-200M ON THE COAST) VERY
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY OVER THE PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND
TOAMASINA; THESE RAINS MAY BE VERY HEAVY ON SOME RELIEFS (200-250MM
IN 24H).
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY OVER
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4M EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE PROVINCES OF
ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) VERY LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- START OF HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H) POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY AND STORM
FORCE THEN HURRICANE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, AT LANDFALL.
- WAVES OF 4 METERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY ON THE COAST
OF NAMPULA PROVINCE, INCREASING TO 6 METERS IN THE MORNING OF MONDAY.
A SURGE OF 50CM IS EXPECTED NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE.=

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 071520

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (E OF MADAGASCAR)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 12.91S

D. 52.59E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   07/1328Z  12.65S  52.82E  GPMI


   LINDGREN

Leonardo

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 071849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/12/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12

2.A POSITION 2025/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 50.7 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/08 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2025/03/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/09 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/09 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 325 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 100

120H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. IT HAS BECOME
A CURVED BAND ON THE INFRARED IMAGE, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF SYSTEM 12-20242025. THE GPM GMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE FROM 1339Z SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CLOSED. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES AN
INTENSITY OF 2.5+, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO AN AVERAGE WIND OF 35KT;
HOWEVER, ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE, NO CLOUD RING IS YET VISIBLE AROUND
THE CENTER, WHICH LEADS US TO STAY ONE NOTCH BELOW THE STORM. A MEAN
WIND INTENSITY OF 30KT IS THEREFORE CHOSEN, AND THE SYSTEM IS
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE SYSTEM REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW
DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASIN.
ACCELERATING, THIS MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT IN THE DIRECTION OF
MADAGASCAR, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO LAND ON THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE, NEAR SAMBAVALE, DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH A NEW RIDGE FORMING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL AND OVER
AFRICA, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF ANALALAVA, BUT
THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT RELIEF IN THIS AREA OF MADAGASCAR COULD
TEMPORARILY LOCATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO LEEWARD OF THIS RELIEF.
KEEPING A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS
SOUTH OF MAYOTTE AND THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO ON SUNDAY. WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING
LESS RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, THE MAIN FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN MORE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, IMPOSING A
TRACK THAT WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE FROM MONDAY
ON NAMPULA PROVINCE. THIS LANDFALLING SCENARIO IS NOW BEING MONITORED
BY THE RSMC, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THESE TIMES. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER MOZAMBIQUE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, WITH A PENETRATION TO BE DETERMINED, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
SEA ON WEDNESDAY.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS
BENEFITING FROM MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE SHEAR
AS IT APPROACHES MADAGASCAR, A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS
STRUGGLING TO CONCENTRATE, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AND A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES MADAGASCAR, AND COULD LAND AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM OVER MADAGASCAR, OR WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS
THAT DO NOT JUSTIFY THE NAMING. THE OUTFLOWING VORTEX WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECONSTITUTE ITSELF, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD
AND REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. WITH A FASTER DISPLACEMENT
AND A MORE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE ABLE
TO REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS
INTENSIFICATION COULD ALSO BE HAMPERED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
LINKED TO CHANGES IN INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY, BEFORE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES OVER THE COUNTRY, WHILE MAINTAINING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 150-200M ON THE COAST) VERY
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY; THESE RAINS MAY BE VERY HEAVY ON SOME
RELIEFS (200-250MM IN 24H).
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY OVER
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4M EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN (100MM IN 24HRS ON THE COAST) AS IT MOVES OUT TO SEA
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE PROVINCE'S COAST FROM SATURDAY
EVENING TO SUNDAY.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) VERY LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- START OF HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H) POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY AND STORM
FORCE THEN HURRICANE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, AT LANDFALL.
- WAVES OF 4 METERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY ON THE COAST
OF NAMPULA PROVINCE, INCREASING TO 6 METERS IN THE MORNING OF MONDAY.
A SURGE OF 50CM IS EXPECTED NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE.=

yhh

ABIO10 PGTW 072230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/072230Z-081800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 52.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 51.8E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION AND
DENSE DEEP CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. A 071752Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS AND ISOLATED
SWATH OF 30 KTS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C),
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THE 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN