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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-15 05:15 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 24.6S 43.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 43.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.6S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.8S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 43.8E.
14MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
223 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.
//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 142100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
- 008//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 24.6S 43.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 223 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) MAINTAINING A STEADY INTENSITY AS
- SHORT-LIVED AND FLARING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE THROUGHOUT
- THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAP INTO THE SYSTEMS WESTERN FLANK.
- ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FRAGMENTED WITH RELATIVELY MINIMAL
- ORGANIZATION, AN EARLIER 141533Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS
- REVEALED A LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE-FEATURE. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
- SUSTAINED STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF OVER 30
- KNOTS HAS CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
- SEMICIRCLE CONVECTION FREE, EVIDENT BY OBSERVABLE LOW-LEVEL
- STRATOCUMULUS LINES WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
- AND A SHARP BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES
- OF PRESENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. ALOFT, A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL
- CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED INTENSITIES AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE
- EQUATORWARD-EXTENDING LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSISTS IN THE SOUTHWARD
- OUTFLOW MECHANISM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER 141533Z SSMIS 37
- GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
- IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
- BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
- POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 141630Z
- CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 141830Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 141830Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 141534Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 141830Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 30+ KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) IS FORECASTED
- TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
- OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DIRECTLY TO THE NORTHEAST
- THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 12
- HOURS, TC JUDE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
- MADAGASCAR, SOUTH OF TOLIARA. DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL
- QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD AND REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
- BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, TC 25S WILL
- TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
- COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, TC JUDE
- IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM
- INITIALLY MAKES LANDFALL WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL
- TRANSITION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING, LONGWAVE
- TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND
- REENTERS THE INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, COMPETING
- STEERING MECHANISMS WITH TWO OPPOSING SUBTROPICAL RIDGES, SUSTAINED
- STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER 30 KNOTS, AND UPPER-LEVEL MID-
- LATITUDE JET SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TC JUDE, THEN MAINTAIN 45
- KNOTS BY THE COMPLETION OF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
- THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 43 NM. AFTER TAU
- 24, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO WIDEN THROUGH TAU 36 AS
- COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD TRACK,
- LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH REGARD
- TO INTENSITY, A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 36
- HOUR PERIOD. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTED SUBTROPICAL
- TRANSITION AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, CONFIDENCE
- REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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