莫桑比克海峡强热带风暴第12号“祖德”(25S.Jude) - 出海再次发展

yhh

WTXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 007   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 41.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 41.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 24.2S 43.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 24.9S 46.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 25.3S 49.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 26.2S 52.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 42.1E.
14MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
140600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 140900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)
   
4. WARNING NR 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 23.0S 41.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 91 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS INDICATED
    
18. IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), WHICH DEPICTS
    
19. CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
20. CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH FRAGMENTED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
    
21. IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AND IS WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
    
22. LLCC DESPITE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
    
23. IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 140357Z SSMIS 37GHZ
    
24. MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
    
25. MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
26. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
    
27. SST VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND,
    
28. OFFSETTING THE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS OF THE NORTHWESTERLY VWS. TC 25S
    
29. PASSED OVER EUROPA ISLAND (61972) AT ABOUT 132300Z PRODUCING PEAK 10-
    
30. MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS, WITH MINIMUM SLP NEAR 988MB. THE
    
31. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
    
32. WITH A TRACK LIKELY TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF TOLIARA (67161) CURRENTLY
    
33. REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 12 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
    
34. INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
    
35. AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE
    
36. EYE STRUCTURE.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
41. POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
45.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
46.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
47.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 140200Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 140304Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 140700Z
    
51. 
    
52. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
53.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
54.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
55.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
56. 
    
57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
61. 
    
62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
63. 
    
64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
65. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
    
68. THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    
69. RIDGE (STR), MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. TC 25S WILL PEAK AT 55
    
70. KNOTS OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN WILL
    
71. WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. STRONG
    
72. SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MADAGASCAR BY TAU
    
73. 12, WITH INCREASING (35-45 KNOTS) VWS LEADING TO A RAPIDLY DEGRADING
    
74. ENVIRONMENT. A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE THE SYSTEM AFTER
    
75. TAU 36 INITIATING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT), WITH TC 25S TRACKING
    
76. ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL
    
77. COMPLETE STT BY TAU 48 AND WILL SLOW AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE
    
78. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
    
81. REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH INCREASING SPREAD
    
82. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING MEDIUM OVERALL
    
83. CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
84. SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48, WITH HAFS-A
    
85. AND HWRF INDICATING A SHORT REINTENSIFICATION PERIOD ASSOCIATED
    
86. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH.
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
91. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：张 玲  2025 年 03 月 14 日 18 时
“祖德”15日早晨即将登陆马达加斯加西南部

时       间：14日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“祖德”，JUDE

中心位置：南纬23.0度、东经41.6度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：985百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加图利亚拉西偏北方向约220公里的莫桑比克海峡内

变化过程：过去24小时，“祖德”由8级加强到10级

预报结论：“祖德”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东南方向移动，即将于15日早晨（北京时）在图利亚拉省西南部沿海登陆（11~12级，30~35米/秒，相当于我国强热带风暴级到台风级），以后自西向东穿过马达加斯加南部，将于15日夜间移入西南印度洋，逐渐远离马达加斯加。

风雨影响：“祖德”对马达加斯加的风雨影响主要集中在14日至15日白天，预计14日夜间到15日白天，莫桑比克海峡、马达加斯加中部和南部沿海将有7~9级大风，阵风10级，“祖德”中心经过的附近海域或地区可达10~12级，阵风13~14级；马达加斯加西部和南部沿海将有中到大雨，其中马达加斯加南部沿海有暴雨（50~80毫米）。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月14日14时00分）


图2 南印度洋强热带风暴“祖德”未来72小时路径概率预报图

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 141221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 42.4 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 405 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 480 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 250 SW: 565 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 630 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 335 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/17 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 595 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 10 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 0


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=2.5 CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN HAS FADED,
CONCENTRATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER WITH INCREASINGLY
COLD HIGHS IN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION. FROM THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY, AN ANALYSIS IN PT OF 2.5 CAN BE MADE SHOWING A CLEAR
WEAKENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME. BY CONSERVATION,
THE CI REMAINS AT 3.5 WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 50KT
CORRESPONDING TO THE VALUES PROVIDED BY THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OF
0617UTC. JUDE REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY
TO INTENSIFY IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE, JUDE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL CONTINUING OVER THE
MASCAREIGNES, AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS, LANDFALLING OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA. THE LOCATION IS
BECOMING CLEARER A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF TOLIARA EARLY
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, DUE TO A SLIGHT ACCELERATION. AN EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THEN
IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES. THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS WILL FADE OVER THE LONG
TERM AS IT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH.

INTENSIFICATION IS SLOW IN COMING AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
LESS CONDUCIVE TO JUDE INTENSIFICATION, WITH DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SHOULD NO LONGER BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT. IN THESE CONDITIONS,
STILL STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINS UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H), PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF TOLIARA AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.
- GALES EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING, STRENGTHENING TO STORM FORCE
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING OF FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY TO HEAVY SEAS (6M LOCALLY MORE) FROM FRIDAY MORNING.
HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SEAS (4 TO 6M) UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE
SOUTH COAST.
- SURGE OF AROUND 50CM NEAR IMPACT ZONE.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 141955
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 500 SW: 465 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 500 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SW: 500 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 85

48H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 520 SW: 500 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 95

60H: 2025/03/17 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 205


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS STRENGTHENED
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WRAPPING WEST
AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CURVED BAND WRAPS MORE THAN 0.8 ROUND,
GIVING A DT OF 3.5, IN LINE WITH THE MET AND PT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM,
DELIBERATELY ABOVE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS DUE TO AN EFFECTIVE INTENSITY
THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE SYSTEM'S
SATELLITE APPEARANCE SINCE THIS FRIDAY MORNING, AND PROLONGING THE
50/55 KT MEASURED ON FRIDAY MORNING'S ASCAT PASS, WHICH ARE PROBABLY
EXCEEDED THIS EVENING UNDER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE'S VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THUS MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR JUST SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF TOLIARA IN THE
MIDDLE OR LATE HOURS OF THE NIGHT. AN EXIT TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES.

INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM. JUDE IS THUS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE. LATER ON, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDS
SHOULD MORE OR LESS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM SATURDAY EVENING, AS IT
MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT,
JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF TOLIARA AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H), PARTICULARLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM NOW ON AND
UNTIL SATURDAY MIDDAY ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 24.6S 43.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 43.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 25.1S 45.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 25.6S 48.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 25.8S 51.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 43.8E.
14MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
223 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.
//
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1. WDXS32 PGTW 142100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
   
4. 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 24.6S 43.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 223 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) MAINTAINING A STEADY INTENSITY AS
    
19. SHORT-LIVED AND FLARING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE THROUGHOUT
    
20. THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAP INTO THE SYSTEMS WESTERN FLANK.
    
21. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
    
22. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FRAGMENTED WITH RELATIVELY MINIMAL
    
23. ORGANIZATION, AN EARLIER 141533Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS
    
24. REVEALED A LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE-FEATURE. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
    
25. SUSTAINED STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF OVER 30
    
26. KNOTS HAS CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
    
27. SEMICIRCLE CONVECTION FREE, EVIDENT BY OBSERVABLE LOW-LEVEL
    
28. STRATOCUMULUS LINES WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
    
29. AND A SHARP BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES
    
30. OF PRESENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. ALOFT, A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL
    
31. CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED INTENSITIES AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE
    
32. EQUATORWARD-EXTENDING LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSISTS IN THE SOUTHWARD
    
33. OUTFLOW MECHANISM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
34. CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER 141533Z SSMIS 37
    
35. GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
    
36. IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
37. BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
38. 
    
39. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
40. 
    
41. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
42. POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
43. 
    
44. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
45.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
46.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
47.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
48.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
49.    CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 141630Z
    
50.    CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 141830Z
    
51.    CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 141830Z
    
52.    CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 141534Z
    
53.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 141830Z
    
54. 
    
55. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
56.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
57.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
58.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
59. 
    
60. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
61.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
62.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
63.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
64. 
    
65. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
66. 
    
67. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
68. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
69. 
    
70. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) IS FORECASTED
    
71. TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
    
72. OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DIRECTLY TO THE NORTHEAST
    
73. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 12
    
74. HOURS, TC JUDE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
    
75. MADAGASCAR, SOUTH OF TOLIARA. DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL
    
76. QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD AND REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
    
77. BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, TC 25S WILL
    
78. TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
    
79. COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, TC JUDE
    
80. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM
    
81. INITIALLY MAKES LANDFALL WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL
    
82. TRANSITION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING, LONGWAVE
    
83. TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND
    
84. REENTERS THE INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, COMPETING
    
85. STEERING MECHANISMS WITH TWO OPPOSING SUBTROPICAL RIDGES, SUSTAINED
    
86. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER 30 KNOTS, AND UPPER-LEVEL MID-
    
87. LATITUDE JET SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TC JUDE, THEN MAINTAIN 45
    
88. KNOTS BY THE COMPLETION OF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36.
    
89. 
    
90. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
    
91. THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 43 NM. AFTER TAU
    
92. 24, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO WIDEN THROUGH TAU 36 AS
    
93. COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD TRACK,
    
94. LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH REGARD
    
95. TO INTENSITY, A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 36
    
96. HOUR PERIOD. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTED SUBTROPICAL
    
97. TRANSITION AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, CONFIDENCE
    
98. REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
99. 
    
100. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
101.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
     
102.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
103. NNNN

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