罗德里格斯岛以东强热带风暴第13号“伊沃娜”(23U/24S.Ivone) - 西南移动

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WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 68.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 68.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 24.7S 66.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 28.2S 66.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 31.3S 67.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 35.3S 70.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 68.0E.
13MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
130600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 130900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE)
   
4. WARNING NR 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.8S 68.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 630 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. AS REVEALED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), THE
    
18. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED, WITH
    
19. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD CENTER AND DISORGANIZED
    
20. DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO HIGH
    
21. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 130401Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
    
22. IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
    
23. WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 130404Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A HIGHLY
    
24. ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER
    
25. SURROUNDED BY 10-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
    
26. GRADIENT-ENHANCED GALE FORCE WINDS DISPLACED 130NM TO THE SOUTH. THE
    
27. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND
    
28. EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE ASCAT-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS
    
29. IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B DATA. WITH
    
30. THE EXCEPTION OF THE MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENVIRONMENTAL
    
31. CONDITIONS ARE STEADILY DEGRADING, WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR OVER THE
    
32. SYSTEM.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
37. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
41.    DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 130400Z
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 130530Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 130530Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 23 KTS AT 130530Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
48. UNFAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
50.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
52.    OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
65. GENERALLY SOUTHWARD (SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD)
    
66. THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO
    
67. THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
    
68. SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
    
69. MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 24S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY
    
70. THROUGH TAU 12 BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY FROM TAU 12 TO
    
71. TAU 24, WITH A CONSOLIDATING WIND FIELD, DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD
    
72. OUTFLOW INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. MODEST RE-MOISTENING OF THE CORE
    
73. WILL OCCUR BUT IS EXPECTED T0 BE SHORT-LIVED AS DRY AIR WILL
    
74. OVERWHELM THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 24 LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING
    
75. THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    
76. (ETT) BY TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
    
77. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE
    
78. JET, WITH STRONG (40-45 KNOTS) VWS AND COLD (20C) SST VALUES, AND
    
79. EMBEDS INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. TC 24S COULD ALSO DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
    
80. COMPLETING ETT.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
    
83. CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 60NM CROSS-
    
84. TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES WITH INCREASING
    
85. UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 36 LENDING MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE
    
86. JTWC TRACK FORECAST. EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    
87. AGREEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAFS-A, RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
88. INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36,
    
89. WITH GFS, COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND HWRF SHOWING PEAK INTENSITIES OF 42-52
    
90. KNOTS.
    
91. 
    
92. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
93.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
94.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
95. NNNN

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ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 012   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 66.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 66.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 27.0S 66.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 30.6S 67.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 34.6S 70.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 66.6E.
13MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 132100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR
   
4. 012//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 23.8S 66.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 568 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
    
19. EXPOSED AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
    
20. NASCENT CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
    
21. LLCC BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS CONVECTION WILL
    
22. PERSIST. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR VECTOR, IT IS
    
23. UNLIKELY THE CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO EXPAND UPSHEAR AND
    
24. RE-COVER THE LLCC. A 131632Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED
    
25. CIRCULATION ORIENTED ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS, WITH A
    
26. SMALL, FULLY ENCLOSED, CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
    
27. THE OVERALL LARGER ROTATION. WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE
    
28. NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND GALE-FORCE WIND OF 35 KNOTS
    
29. ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION.
    
30. ADDITIONALLY, THE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE RMW HAS
    
31. DECREASED TO LESS THAN 100NM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL
    
32. POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION
    
33. OF THE CENTER DEFINED IN THE ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    
34. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA NOTED ABOVE
    
35. AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE CIMSS AIDT, SATCON AND D-MINT
    
36. ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, WITH MARGINAL SSTS, HIGH
    
37. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR OFFSETTING THE ROBUST
    
38. POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
    
39. 
    
40. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
41. 
    
42. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
43. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
44. 
    
45. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
46.    PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
47.    DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
48.    CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 131530Z
    
49.    CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 131730Z
    
50.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 131730Z
    
51.    CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 131407Z
    
52.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 131730Z
    
53. 
    
54. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
55.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
56.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
57.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
58.    OTHER FACTORS: CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND
    
59. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION.
    
60. 
    
61. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
62.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
63.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
64.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
65. 
    
66. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
67. 
    
68. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
69. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
70. 
    
71. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S IS TRACKING
    
72. SOUTHWARD, NEARING THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
    
73. EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIDGE AXIS WITHIN THE
    
74. NEXT 12 HOURS, QUICKLY ROUND THE RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE
    
75. SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
    
76. UPPER-LEVELS, A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS SITUATED JUST WEST OF TC 24S
    
77. AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. THE STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF
    
78. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    
79. CHANNEL, WHICH IS PROVIDING A BURST OF MINIMALLY SUPPORTIVE
    
80. ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
    
81. CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A TIGHTENING OF THE WIND FIELD AND SLIGHT
    
82. INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE ROBUST DIVERGENT
    
83. OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THUS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A BRIEF
    
84. PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, UP TO 40 KNOTS, THROUGH THE NEXT 24
    
85. HOURS. THE TROUGH PASSES OVER AND EAST OF TC 24S WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    
86. HOURS, AND AFTER PASSAGE, CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRY
    
87. AIR WILL QUICKLY ENGULF THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.
    
88. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS
    
89. IT BEGINS INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH COMPLETION
    
90. OF ETT EXPECTED BY TAU 36.
    
91. 
    
92. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
    
93. AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC
    
94. FORECAST IS SITUATED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
    
95. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE MIXED, WITH THE COAMPS-TC
    
96. AND GFS INDICATING INTENSIFICATION UP TO 40 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY SLOW
    
97. WEAKENING, WHILE THE HWRF AND HAFS-A INDICATE STEADY WEAKENING FROM
    
98. THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SITUATED CLOSE
    
99. TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
100. 
     
101. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
102.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
     
103.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
104. NNNN

复制代码

yhh

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 013   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 24.5S 65.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 65.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 27.0S 66.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 65.6E.
14MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S HAS
TRANSITIONED INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM WHILE TRACKING UNDER A SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY AND
A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO 26C AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN