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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-14 19:20 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.0S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.6S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.6S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 66.6E.
13MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 132100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WARNING NR
- 012//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 23.8S 66.7E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 568 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
- MAURITIUS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
- EXPOSED AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
- NASCENT CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
- LLCC BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS CONVECTION WILL
- PERSIST. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR VECTOR, IT IS
- UNLIKELY THE CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO EXPAND UPSHEAR AND
- RE-COVER THE LLCC. A 131632Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED
- CIRCULATION ORIENTED ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS, WITH A
- SMALL, FULLY ENCLOSED, CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
- THE OVERALL LARGER ROTATION. WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE
- NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND GALE-FORCE WIND OF 35 KNOTS
- ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION.
- ADDITIONALLY, THE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE RMW HAS
- DECREASED TO LESS THAN 100NM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL
- POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION
- OF THE CENTER DEFINED IN THE ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
- ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA NOTED ABOVE
- AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE CIMSS AIDT, SATCON AND D-MINT
- ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, WITH MARGINAL SSTS, HIGH
- NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR OFFSETTING THE ROBUST
- POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
- DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 131530Z
- CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 131730Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 131730Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 131407Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 131730Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 30+ KTS
- SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND
- MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S IS TRACKING
- SOUTHWARD, NEARING THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
- EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIDGE AXIS WITHIN THE
- NEXT 12 HOURS, QUICKLY ROUND THE RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE
- SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
- UPPER-LEVELS, A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS SITUATED JUST WEST OF TC 24S
- AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. THE STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF
- THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
- CHANNEL, WHICH IS PROVIDING A BURST OF MINIMALLY SUPPORTIVE
- ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
- CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A TIGHTENING OF THE WIND FIELD AND SLIGHT
- INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE ROBUST DIVERGENT
- OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THUS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A BRIEF
- PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, UP TO 40 KNOTS, THROUGH THE NEXT 24
- HOURS. THE TROUGH PASSES OVER AND EAST OF TC 24S WITHIN THE NEXT 24
- HOURS, AND AFTER PASSAGE, CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT DRY
- AIR WILL QUICKLY ENGULF THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.
- SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS
- IT BEGINS INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH COMPLETION
- OF ETT EXPECTED BY TAU 36.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
- AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC
- FORECAST IS SITUATED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE MIXED, WITH THE COAMPS-TC
- AND GFS INDICATING INTENSIFICATION UP TO 40 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY SLOW
- WEAKENING, WHILE THE HWRF AND HAFS-A INDICATE STEADY WEAKENING FROM
- THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SITUATED CLOSE
- TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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